Disney and Lucasfilm may already have a major problem on their hands with the Mandalorian and Grogu opening weekend box office, and it might be even worse than anyone originally thought.
After early projections suggested The Mandalorian & Grogu could open to roughly $160 million globally over Memorial Day weekend, new tracking indicates the film may now come in even lower after a weak start overseas — particularly in Europe.
THE MANDALORIAN AND GROGU underperformed at the European box office yesterday.
It’s now tracking to have the worst global opening weekend ever for a STAR WARS film. It might not even hit $150M by Sunday. pic.twitter.com/PPA43k0P5f
— Global Box Office (@GlobalBoxOffice) May 21, 2026
According to Global Box Office on X, The Mandalorian & Grogu “underperformed at the European box office yesterday” and is now “tracking to have the worst global opening weekend ever for a Star Wars film.”
Even more alarming, the account added that the movie “might not even hit $150M by Sunday.”
For most franchises, $150 million worldwide would still sound solid. But this is Star Wars — Disney’s flagship sci-fi brand and the company’s first theatrical Star Wars release in seven years.
Expectations were far higher than this.
Lucasfilm Needed A Theatrical Win
This movie was supposed to signal that Star Wars could still dominate theaters after years of controversy, declining enthusiasm, canceled projects, and uneven Disney+ releases.
Instead, the early reaction surrounding the film has felt far more muted than Disney likely anticipated.
Critics have also been far from enthusiastic. The movie has been hovering dangerously close to Rotten territory on Rotten Tomatoes, sitting around 60–61% as reactions continue rolling in.
Rotten Tomatoes Scores for The Mandalorian and Grogu as of May 19, 2026 at 11:45 a.m. – Rotten Tomatoes
That combination — soft overseas turnout and mixed reviews — creates a dangerous situation for a movie that desperately needs strong legs.
Because the real issue here isn’t simply the opening weekend itself. It’s profitability.
The Real Cost Of The Mandalorian and Grogu May Be Much Higher
Disney has publicly cited a roughly $166 million cost figure for The Mandalorian and Grogu, but Valliant Renegade’s breakdown argued that number may only reflect California “qualified expenditures” tied to the state’s tax credit program — not the full cost of the movie.
READ: How Much Money Does The Mandalorian and Grogu Actually Need to Break Even?
In other words, that figure may cover eligible below-the-line spending like crew, sets, costumes, and production work, while excluding major above-the-line costs such as writers, producers, directors, principal cast, and other talent expenses.
That would mean names like Jon Favreau, Dave Filoni, Kathleen Kennedy, Pedro Pascal, and Sigourney Weaver may not be fully reflected in the reported figure. Add marketing that could run another $120 million to $150 million, and the break-even math starts pushing much closer to the $600 million range.
And that’s where these downgraded projections become especially concerning.
Disney+ Success Doesn’t Automatically Create Box Office Demand
Lucasfilm clearly hoped the popularity of The Mandalorian Disney+ series would translate directly into theatrical excitement.
But streaming popularity and theatrical urgency are not the same thing.
In fact, Disney may now be running into a problem Hollywood has increasingly struggled with over the last several years: audiences trained to consume franchise content at home simply do not feel compelled to rush to theaters anymore unless the movie feels like a genuine cultural event.
Grogu eating a cookie – Star Wars, YouTube
And many fans appear unconvinced that The Mandalorian & Grogu qualifies as one.
Some online reactions have argued the movie feels less like a cinematic event and more like “Season 4” of a streaming show being repackaged as a theatrical release.
Others have questioned whether requiring audiences to follow multiple Disney+ seasons before understanding the movie has hurt casual interest.
Star Wars No Longer Feels Untouchable
For decades, a new Star Wars movie was practically guaranteed to become a global phenomenon.
That automatic excitement no longer appears to exist.
Pedro Pascal unmasked in The Mandalorian – YouTube, Star Wars
Disney’s sequel trilogy deeply divided the fanbase, and subsequent projects have struggled to restore widespread enthusiasm for the franchise. Several announced films have stalled or disappeared entirely, while Lucasfilm continues searching for a clear long-term direction.
Now the company’s attempt to relaunch theatrical Star Wars may be heading toward the weakest global opening weekend in franchise history. And if the movie continues sliding below earlier projections, the conversation around Disney’s handling of Star Wars is only going to get louder.
Where do you think the Mandalorian and Grogu box office will land? Sound off and let us know!
