The Mandalorian and Grogu may already be flopping in Europe.
Disney and Lucasfilm were hoping The Mandalorian and Grogu would mark a triumphant return for Star Wars on the big screen after a seven-year theatrical absence. Instead, early overseas numbers are raising serious concerns that the galaxy far, far away may not be the box office juggernaut it once was.
According to respected box office analyst Luiz Fernando, the film’s opening day in Italy delivered a surprisingly soft performance that immediately sparked concern among industry watchers and fans alike.
#TheMandalorianAndGrogu kicked off global rollout in Europe, but not like one would expect from first #StarWars film in 7 years!
In #Italy’s #BoxOffice for instance, the film starring #PedroPascal grossed modest $417k on WED Opening Day (vs #TheFlash’s $414k, #SOLO’s $453k,… pic.twitter.com/GEO2d0HJqJ— Luiz Fernando (@Luiz_Fernando_J) May 21, 2026
In a post on X, Fernando reported that The Mandalorian and Grogu grossed just $417,000 on its Wednesday opening day in Italy, totaling roughly 43,000 admissions. Those numbers placed the film alarmingly close to several recent franchise disappointments.
Fernando compared the debut to:
- The Flash — $414K opening day
- Solo: A Star Wars Story — $453K opening day
- Captain America: Brave New World — $531K opening day
Even more concerning, Fernando noted that the film delivered “one of the lowest debuts for Disney major IP post-COVID,” outperforming only The Marvels ($300K) and Disney’s live-action Snow White ($378K).
For a franchise once capable of dominating the global box office, those comparisons are difficult to ignore.
A Troubling Start for Disney’s Star Wars Return
The underwhelming Italy debut comes as multiple reports suggest The Mandalorian and Grogu may already be tracking toward one of the weakest openings of Disney’s Star Wars era overall.
Current projections reportedly place the film around an $80 million domestic opening and roughly $80 million overseas for a global launch near $160 million. While those numbers would be respectable for many franchises, they are far less impressive for the first theatrical Star Wars film since The Rise of Skywalker in 2019.
The Mandalorian and Grogu alongside Rotten Tomatoes Reviews – Lucasfilm; Rotten Tomatoes
That becomes even more problematic when considering the film’s reported budget.
Production costs for The Mandalorian and Grogu are widely believed to sit around $165–166 million before marketing costs. Once global advertising and theater splits are factored in, analysts have estimated the film may need somewhere between $500 million and $600 million worldwide just to break even.
A $160 million global opening would put Disney on a very difficult road toward profitability.
Comparisons to Recent Box Office Struggles Are Brutal
What makes Fernando’s analysis particularly damaging is not simply the raw number itself, but the company being kept.
The Flash became one of Warner Bros.’ biggest comic book disappointments in recent memory. Solo: A Star Wars Story famously underperformed so badly that it effectively halted Disney’s theatrical Star Wars plans for years.
Captain America/Sam Wilson (Anthony Mackie) in Marvel Studios’ CAPTAIN AMERICA: BRAVE NEW WORLD, exclusively on Disney+. Photo courtesy of Marvel Studios. © 2024 MARVEL.
Meanwhile, Captain America: Brave New World faced significant criticism and failed to generate the level of excitement Marvel once took for granted.
The fact that The Mandalorian and Grogu is opening in the same range as those films is not the kind of conversation Disney or Lucasfilm wanted surrounding their supposed theatrical comeback.
Is Star Wars Losing International Interest?
Some fans have argued that Star Wars has never been as dominant overseas as franchises like Avatar or the Marvel Cinematic Universe. There’s truth to that. Historically, Star Wars has always been more domestic-heavy than many major global franchises.
However, that alone may not fully explain these numbers.
Pedro Pascal unmasked in The Mandalorian – YouTube, Star Wars
The reality is that enthusiasm surrounding Disney-era Star Wars has become increasingly fractured over the past several years. While The Mandalorian Season 1 became a cultural phenomenon thanks in large part to Grogu, interest appeared to decline significantly by Season 3.
Many viewers also continue questioning whether this project ever truly needed a theatrical release at all.
Critics and fans alike have repeatedly described the movie as feeling more like “an extended Disney+ episode” than a must-see cinematic event. That perception may be hurting urgency at the box office, especially internationally where Disney+ content often struggles to generate the same cultural impact.
Competition Could Make Things Worse
Fernando also pointed out another potential problem for the film overseas: competition.
In Italy, The Devil Wears Prada 2 reportedly earned $257K on its fourth Wednesday, while Michael pulled in another $235K on its fifth Wednesday in release. If The Mandalorian and Grogu fails to accelerate through the weekend, there’s now legitimate speculation that Disney’s massive Star Wars return could struggle to dominate the market the way previous entries once did effortlessly.
Stanley Tucci and Anne Hathaway in The Devil Wears Prada 2 – 20th Century Studios, YouTube
That possibility would have been almost unthinkable a decade ago.
Of course, it’s still early, and a single international territory does not determine a film’s final fate. But for a movie positioned as the grand return of Star Wars to theaters, these early overseas numbers are not sending a reassuring message.
A piece of the Mandalorian and Grogu movie poster – Disney
If anything, they are reinforcing a growing fear among fans and analysts alike: Disney may have overestimated just how much excitement still exists for modern Star Wars on the big screen.
What do you think The Mandalorian and Grogu will do in Europe? Sound off in the comments and let us know!
