DC Studios may already have a major warning sign flashing for the future of its cinematic universe as Supergirl is already being compared to some of the worst box office flops in super hero cinema history.
According to new forecasting data from Box Office Theory, the upcoming Supergirl is currently projected to open between $47 million and $65 million domestically during its debut weekend. While defenders of the film argue those numbers are still early estimates, critics immediately noticed how closely they mirror the openings of several recent superhero box office disasters.
Most notably, the forecast lines up almost perfectly with The Marvels, one of the most infamous comic book movie bombs in recent memory.
The Marvels Comparison Is Impossible To Ignore
When fans saw the projected opening range for Supergirl, many immediately drew comparisons to The Marvels, which debuted to just over $46 million domestically before collapsing at the box office. Despite being part of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, the film finished with only around $84 million domestic during its entire theatrical run.
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That disastrous performance became symbolic of growing superhero fatigue among mainstream audiences.
Now Supergirl is finding itself in similar territory before tickets have even gone on sale.
Black Adam – $67M
The Flash – $55M
Morbius – $39M
The Marvels – $47M https://t.co/DSJHxLQ64R— Unbiased Snyder Fan (@UltraBiasedFan) May 23, 2026
One viral X post comparing the numbers highlighted just how uncomfortable the situation looks for DC Studios:
- Black Adam — $67 million opening
- The Flash — $55 million opening
- Morbius — $39 million opening
- The Marvels — $47 million opening
Those are not the films Warner Bros. wants audiences associating with its supposedly revitalized DC Universe.
The Long-Term Forecast May Be Worse
The opening weekend projections are only part of the concern.
According to Box Office Theory, Supergirl could finish its entire domestic run somewhere between $107 million and $181 million. That’s an enormous range, but even the midpoint estimate of roughly $137 million raises major questions about the strength of audience interest.
Anthony Mackie as Sam Wilson/Captain America in Marvel Studios‘ CAPTAIN AMERICA: BRAVE NEW WORLD. Photo by Eli Adé. © 2024 MARVEL.
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If the film lands around that midpoint, it would finish behind Black Adam domestically (which came in at $168.15 million) despite that film largely being viewed as a commercial disappointment. It would also trail Captain America: Brave New World, another superhero movie that struggled to generate excitement and capped out at $200.5 million domestic.
The lower end of the forecast is even more alarming.
Eara Miller as The Flash in The Flash – YouTube, DC
A $107 million domestic finish would put Supergirl almost directly alongside The Flash ($108 million), which became one of the most disastrous box office collapses in DC history after years of delays, reshoots, and expensive marketing campaigns.
For a film meant to help establish the future of James Gunn’s DCU, those numbers would be extremely difficult to spin positively.
Milly Alcock’s Comments Added Fuel To The Fire
Star Milly Alcock recently generated backlash online after mocking “Christian dads” while discussing criticism from fans. She also stated she had no issue upsetting “the right people,” comments that immediately circulated across social media and entertainment commentary channels.
While activist entertainment outlets often dismiss those controversies as meaningless culture war drama, studios have repeatedly learned that antagonizing parts of the paying audience can become a serious public relations problem.
Supergirl using Heat Vision in the Supergirl trailer – YouTube, DC
Fans have seen similar situations before with stars like Brie Larson and Rachel Zegler, where repeated public controversies overshadowed the projects themselves and created growing resentment among moviegoers.
Whether fair or not, Alcock’s comments have now become part of the conversation surrounding Supergirl.
James Gunn’s DCU Still Has Something To Prove
The projections also arrive during a period of growing scrutiny surrounding James Gunn’s overall DCU strategy.
Superman was supposed to ignite widespread excitement for James Gunn’s rebooted DC Universe, but the film failed to generate the kind of overwhelming audience enthusiasm Warner Bros. likely hoped for from the relaunch of its most iconic character.
Superman beaten down in the trailer for James Gunn’s Superman – YouTube, DC
Netflix CEO Ted Sarandos, while attempting to acquire Warner Bros. studios, even claimed during a government hearing under oath that Superman lost money at the box office.
For a movie carrying the burden of resetting the entire DC brand, many analysts expected significantly stronger box office performance and far more cultural momentum.
Peacemaker screaming in season 2 – HBO Max
Meanwhile, Gunn’s Peacemaker failed to become the kind of dominant mainstream streaming hit capable of driving broader excitement for the DCU brand.
That has left some fans wondering whether the problem is not “superhero fatigue” at all, but rather growing audience rejection of Hollywood’s modern franchise formula and DC Studios’ current creative direction under James Gunn.
Forecasts Can Change — But The Optics Already Look Bad
To be fair, long-range box office forecasting is far from an exact science. Marketing campaigns, trailers, audience reactions, reviews, and release competition can all dramatically shift projections closer to launch.
But perception matters in Hollywood, and right now the perception surrounding Supergirl is becoming increasingly difficult for DC Studios to ignore.
The poster for Supergirl – DC
When your superhero movie is being compared to The Marvels, The Flash, and Black Adam before release, that’s not the kind of buzz a studio hopes for while trying to rebuild confidence in an entire cinematic universe.
How do you think Supergirl will perform at the box office? Sound off and let us know!
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