Disney’s hopes of launching a theatrical comeback for Star Wars appear to be unraveling at lightspeed. After falling behind horror films Obsession and Backrooms during the week, The Mandalorian and Grogu has now suffered what may be its most damaging box office setback yet.
According to industry tracking shared by box office analyst Luiz Fernando, the film plunged approximately 80.8% from its opening Friday, marking the steepest Friday-to-Friday decline ever recorded by a Disney-era Star Wars movie.
Like a Death Star attacked by indie rebels, #TheMandalorianAndGrogu is crashing & burning on 2nd weekend at US #BoxOffice, after grossing just 6.5M on LOWEST 2nd FRI for #StarWars films under #Disney, shocking -80.8% drop from FRI Opening Day (vs #SOLO’s 8.1M, -77%)!, falling to… pic.twitter.com/zpWeyW3pda
— Luiz Fernando (@Luiz_Fernando_J) May 30, 2026
Even more alarming, the latest projections suggest The Mandalorian and Grogu could finish its second weekend with a drop approaching 70%, a figure normally associated with films suffering from weak word of mouth and rapidly fading audience interest.
For a franchise Disney hoped would return Star Wars to blockbuster dominance, the numbers paint a very different picture.
A Historic Collapse for Disney’s Star Wars Era
The first warning signs appeared earlier in the week when The Mandalorian and Grogu surrendered the No. 1 box office position to the surprise horror sensation Obsession.
Then it got worse.
By Thursday, Disney’s latest Star Wars film had slipped all the way to third place behind both Obsession and newcomer Backrooms. Now, Friday estimates indicate the movie has posted the largest Friday-to-Friday drop of any Disney-era Star Wars release.
Historically, Star Wars films have been known for strong audience turnout and sustained interest beyond opening weekend. Even entries that underperformed expectations generally maintained enough momentum to avoid the kind of collapse currently facing The Mandalorian and Grogu.
Instead, Disney’s latest release appears to be losing audience attention at an alarming rate.
The Lowest Opening Was Only the Beginning
The disappointing second weekend follows what was already a troubling opening frame.
The Mandalorian and Grogu delivered the lowest domestic opening weekend of Disney’s theatrical Star Wars era. Revised figures later showed the film failed to reach the $100 million domestic opening threshold many outlets initially reported.
Overseas performance has also been softer than Disney likely hoped, raising additional concerns about the film’s long-term earning potential.
The Mandalorian and a Hutt – Star Wars, YouTube
Those opening numbers were concerning enough on their own.
An estimated 70% second-weekend decline would signal a much deeper problem.
Massive second-weekend drops often indicate that audiences who were interested showed up immediately, while broader moviegoers remained unconvinced. For a franchise built on repeat viewings and generational appeal, that’s not a healthy sign.
Disney’s Streaming Strategy May Be Catching Up With Star Wars
One question increasingly hanging over Lucasfilm is whether Disney spent too many years conditioning audiences to consume Star Wars as streaming content.
Unlike previous theatrical releases, The Mandalorian and Grogu originated as a Disney+ series. Fans spent years watching Din Djarin and Grogu from their living rooms.
Opening shot from The Mandalorian and Grogu trailer – Star Wars, YouTube
When Disney announced the pair would headline a theatrical film, the assumption was that audiences would eagerly follow them to multiplexes.
The box office results suggest that assumption may have been overly optimistic.
After years of telling subscribers that major Star Wars stories would debut on Disney+, convincing those same consumers to pay premium ticket prices appears far more difficult than expected.
The Future of Star Wars at the Box Office
Perhaps the most troubling aspect of the film’s performance is what it says about the current state of the franchise.
There was a time when Star Wars dominated the box office conversation. Competing studios avoided opening against it. Fans returned for multiple viewings. New releases routinely became cultural events.
A screencap from The Mandalorian and Grogu – YouTube, Star Wars
Today, Disney’s latest Star Wars film is watching horror movies seize the spotlight while suffering what may become one of the worst second-weekend drops in Disney-era franchise history.
The final weekend numbers will determine exactly where The Mandalorian and Grogu lands in the record books.
But this is not the triumphant theatrical return Disney was hoping for.
Instead, The Mandalorian and Grogu is quickly becoming another example of how difficult it has become for Lucasfilm to recapture the box office dominance Star Wars once enjoyed.
Are you surprised by this massive box office drop? Sound off in the comments and let us know!
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