Box office tracking numbers do not look good for the upcoming James Wan-directed and Jason Momoa-starring Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom.
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (2023), Warner Bros. Pictures
A new report from Variety details that the film is only expected to gross between $35 million and $40 million in its 4-day weekend, which includes Christmas since it is on a Monday this year.
The film reportedly has a $205 million production budget meaning the film likely needs to make at least $512.5 million globally in order to break even.
Jason Momoa as Aquaman in Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (2023), Warner Bros.
Not only does the report detail the lackluster opening weekend for the film, but it claims that Warner Bros. Discovery is throwing in the towel for the film as well.
Rebecca Rubin explains, “Warner Bros. has seemingly scaled back “Aquaman 2’s” marketing efforts, which likely still cost $100 million. The studio opted to mount a “fan screening” and “genre media and influencer” event in Los Angeles with just Momoa and director James Wan, rather than host a splashy red carpet premiere with the full cast, including Patrick Wilson, Amber Heard, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II and Nicole Kidman.”
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II as Black Manta in Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (2023), Warrner Bros.
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This latest report from Rubin comes amid the film’s declining box office hopes over the past month.
Box Office Pro originally predicted the film would bring in between $32 million and $42 million at the end of November. The outlet went on to predict the movie would gross between $105 million and $168 million in its entire domestic run.
The site has since adjusted those predictions down. On December 15th, the 3-day weekend projections were downgraded to between $29 million and $38 million. The outlet did predict the film’s 4-day weekend would be between $38 million and $51 million.
As for its entire domestic gross, Box Office Pro also adjusted that downward to between $105 million and $155 million.
Jason Momoa as Aquaman in Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (2023), Warner Bros.
The film has already released in a number of international markets and it’s not doing well.
According to box office tracker and analyst Luiz Fernando the film grossed less than half of what the original Aquaman did in 2018 when it released in South Korea.
Fernando notes, “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom has a concerning start in Korea’s box office, debuting at #3 and grossing soft 484k on WED Opening Day including previews, selling 64k tickets. Less than half of 2018 Aquaman’s 983k WED Opening Day.
He noted that number was worse than both Black Adam and The Flash, but did perform significantly better than Shazam! Fury of the Gods.\
#AquamanAndTheLostKingdom has a concerning start in #Korea’s #BoxOffice, debuting at #3 and grossing soft 484k on WED Opening Day including previews, selling 64k tickets.
Less than half of 2018 #Aquaman’s 983k WED Opening Day.Compared to pandemic DC films:#ShazamFuryOfTheGods… pic.twitter.com/pFTlJKO5qA
— Luiz Fernando (@Luiz_Fernando_J) December 20, 2023
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While the film is faring poorly in South Korea, it does appear to have some strength in China. The movie is currently the top grossing film in the country with sales hitting $5.1 million including Tuesday previews and all of Wednesday. That’s better than both The Flash and The Batman.
However, it’s only marginally better than The Marvels, which grossed $4.2 million in its China debut.
In #China’s #BoxOffice, #AquamanAndTheLostKingdom debuted in #1 grossing $5.1M over 147k screenings on WED Opening Day incl TUE previews (vs #GoTGVol3 7.4M, #WW84 6.8M, #Quantumania 6.1M, #TheFlash 4.2M, #TheMarvels 4.2M, #AcrossTheSpiderVerse 4M, #TheBatman 3.7M)
A far cry… pic.twitter.com/MHIaZWSXyl
— Luiz Fernando (@Luiz_Fernando_J) December 20, 2023
If you compare the projected domestic numbers to the original Aquaman film, it does not look good. The first film grossed $72.5 million in its opening weekend. It had extraordinarily strong legs eventually grossing $335 million at the domestic box office.
It would go on to gross $808.6 million internationally for a global gross of $1.1 billion. The film raked in $291.8 million in China alone. South Korea had the second biggest international box office for the film with grosses totaling $37.2 million.
Jason Momoa as Aquaman in Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (2023), Warner Bros.
As far as Warner Bros. throwing in the towel, Momoa has said as much. He recently told ET Online, “I don’t necessarily want it to be the end. Yes, I don’t think it’s really like it was a choice. I think obviously the whole, you know, James [Gunn] and Peter [Safran] and DC wanting to start the new thing up. So I don’t know if it will be, but the truth of it is if the audience loves it then there’s a possibility.”
He added, “But right now I’m like it’s not looking too good.”
Needless to say all the pieces to a box office bomb are coming together.
What do you make of the box office expectations for Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom?
