Jason Momoa's 'Aquaman And The Lost Kingdom' To Have A Worse Opening Weekend Compared To Brie Larson's 'The Marvels'

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (2023), Warner Bros. Pictures

Early box office projections are already coming in for Jason Momoa’s upcoming Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom film and they indicate the movie will have a worse opening weekend than Brie Larson’s The Marvels.

Jason Momoa as Aquaman in Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (2023), Warner Bros.

Box Office Pro shared their long range projections for the film claiming the Aquaman sequel will only gross between $32 million and $42 million in its domestic opening weekend.

Furthermore, the outlet predicted the film will only gross between $105 million and $168 million in its entire domestic run.

The outlet noted their projections did include pre-sales data which showed the movie was “pacing 25 percent ahead of the aforementioned Shazam! sequel and 62 percent behind Black Adam after one day of sample market tracking.”

Jason Momoa as Aquaman in Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (2023), Warner Bros.

The Marvels had an opening weekend of $46.1 million. It had a massive 78% decline in its second weekend bringing in only $10.1 million.

So far the latest Marvel Cinematic Universe entry film has only grossed $69.1 million domestically. And many analysts believe the film will not even hit $100 million in its entire domestic run.

Internationally, The Marvels has grossed $96.2 million. Overall, the film has grossed $165.4 million.

(L-R): Iman Vellani as Ms. Marvel/Kamala Khan, Brie Larson as Captain Marvel/Carol Danvers, and Teyonah Parris as Captain Monica Rambeau in Marvel Studios’ THE MARVELS. Photo by Laura Radford. © 2023 MARVEL.

Looking back to 2018 and the original Aquaman film, the film had an opening weekend gross of $72.5 million. The projections for Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom on the low end would see a 55.9% decline. If it hits the high end of $42 million, the decline from the first film is 42%.

Looking at a number in the middle of the range like $37 million, the film would see a decline of nearly 50% compared to the first film.

Yahya Abdul-Mateen II as Black Manta in Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (2023), Warrner Bros.

It looks even more bleak when you look at the overall domestic gross. Aquaman grossed a total of $335 million domestically and another $808.6 million internationally for a global gross of $1.1 billion.

Looking at the domestic number if Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom hits the low end of Box Office Pro’s domestic projections, it would be a 68% decline from the first film. If it attains the high end of $168 million, it’s still a nearly 50% decline.

If you look at a number like $136 million in the middle of the range, it’s a nearly 60% decline.

It’s quite possible these projections are high. We saw Box Office Pro adjust their projections downward for The Marvels as the film got closer to release.

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom could face similar issues as the movie is plagued with problems. One of the biggest issues is the fact that the film is the last film in the old Warner Bros. regime before James Gunn’s DCU takes flight with Superman: Legacy.

Gunn made it clear the film would have no effect on the DCU moving forward when he declared on Threads that nothing in the DCU was canon until Creature Commandos.

Gunn wrote, “Nothing is canon until Creature Commandos next year – a sort of aperitif to the DCU – & then a deeper dive into the universe with Superman: Legacy after that.”

James Gunn Threads

He would add in a follow-up, “And, yes, some actors will be playing characters they’ve played in other stories & some plot points might be consistent with plot points from the dozens of films, shows, & animated projects that have come from DC in the past. But nothing is canon until CC and Legacy.”

James Gunn Threads

All of the DC films that came out after Gunn announced his DCU at the end of January have failed at the box office.

Shazam! Fury of the Gods grossed $57.6 million domestically and $74.5 million internationally for a global gross of $132.1 million. The movie had a production budget of $125 million.

The Flash grossed $108.1 million domestically and $158.3 million domestically for a global gross of $266.5 million. The movie had a production budget of at least $200 million.

Finally, Blue Beetle grossed $72.4 million domestically and $56.2 million internationally for a global gross of $128.7 million. The movie’s production budget came in around $120 million.

Jason Momoa as Aquaman in Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (2023), Warner Bros.

Not only is the film facing headwinds as being the last DCEU film in a clearly dead universe, but the film also faces a boycott due to its inclusion of Amber Heard as Mera. Over 4.6 million signatures were collected in a petition to have Heard removed from the film after her actions and character were exposed in a defamation lawsuit brought by her ex-husband Johnny Depp.

The petition reads in part, “Amber Heard has been exposed as a domestic abuser by Johnny Depp. In his $50 million lawsuit, Johnny Depp describes many incidents of domestic abuse that he suffered at the hands of his (then) wife Amber Heard, including one incident where she punched him twice in the face and another where she shattered his finger with a vodka bottle, and his finger had to be surgically reattached. He will bear the scar from that for the rest of his life.”

Amber Heard as Mera in Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (2023), Warner Bros. Pictures

The film also might be coming at the tail end of the superhero cycle as general moviegoing audiences are looking for something other than superheroes films to entertain them.

Legendary comic book writer Chuck Dixon observed the cycle was over with The Flash writing on Facebook, “The superhero cycle had a good run but it’s over.”

Chuck Dixon Facebook

He elaborated in video on The Trent Report that the superhero cycle is over, but marquee characters like Batman, Superman, and Spider-Man will continue, “Just as James Bond survived the death of the spy craze in the 60s, I think Superman, Batman, Spider-Man can continue on. They are sort of immune from the superhero cycle as we’ve seen from their box office.”

However, he added, “I think the cycle’s over. That’s the problem with cycles, knowing when they’re going to end and they end quickly. And the problem is they’ve got all these big budget films in the pipeline that they know are going to fail.”