Avatar: Fire and Ash is getting ready to blow the doors off the Chinese box office. After years of tension between the U.S. and Chinese film industries, a new era may be on the horizon.
AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH is about to KAMIKAZE China’s box office with a whopping opening weekend of $90M-$100M, the third BIGGEST post-pandemic opening for a Hollywood movie in China!
Chinese just can’t resist Cameron’s Pandora! pic.twitter.com/zpo85t8k6Q
— Global Box Office (@GlobalBoxOff) December 8, 2025
According to the Global Box Office account on X, James Cameron’s latest for Disney is projected to open to $90–100 million in China. They note that this would make Fire and Ash the third largest opening weekend for a U.S. film since 2020.
So while it’s not expected to dethrone this year’s Zootopia 2 (also put out by Disney), Fire and Ash should more than double the original opening weekend of Avatar: Way of Water in the same market.
The Tracking
Global Box Office bases its projection on tracking data from Maoyan, one of China’s entertainment ticketing and data tracking platforms. Fire and Ash currently holds a “want-to-see” score of nearly 1 million on Maoyan and is only the second U.S. movie this year, after Zootopia 2, to rank that high on the platform.
Deadline noted that two days before Zootopia 2 opened, the Maoyan score was 2.3 million. So far, it doesn’t appear that Fire and Ash will come close to matching that degree of electric anticipation. Still, it’s positioned to do very well.
China Box Office: ‘Zootopia 2’ Opens With Massive $272 Million, Biggest Hollywood Haul in Years https://t.co/pSxunDwkIO
— The Hollywood Reporter (@THR) December 1, 2025
Zootopia 2 opened to a stunning $272 million five-day total in China. Before its release, Deadline predicted that it and Fire and Ash could open anywhere between $125 and $150 million. That Zootopia 2 dramatically defied all expectations makes China the wildcard in a market Hollywood had once largely written off.
But one thing few do is bet against James Cameron.
The Release
The Global Times reported that Cameron met on Monday with Feng Fei, Secretary of the Hainan Provincial Committee of the Communist Party of China. “According to the Hainan Daily report, James Cameron expressed that China is the world’s largest film market, and its film industry is developing rapidly,” Global Times added. Cameron also said he looked forward to using his time at the Hainan International Film Festival as an “opportunity to deepen exchanges and cooperation with the Chinese film industry.”
James Cameron talks in a Vanity Fair interview – YouTube, Vanity Fair
Cameron will be in Shanghai on December 18 for a Fire and Ash premiere, where the movie will be shown using China’s advanced CINITY film projection system, a format exclusively owned by the China Film Group.
“Avatar: The Fire and Ash” is set to make its grand premiere in China at the 7th Hainan Island International Film Festival. The legendary director and creator of the Avatar series, #JamesCameron, will personally attend the premiere. With the technical support of CINITY, a film… pic.twitter.com/4PyWY7Bmxi
— GoSanya (@GoSanyaOfficial) October 9, 2025
“I love seeing my films in CINITY format. There’s a brightness and obviously they support the high frame rate. There’s a higher dynamic range. It really is a superior format,” Cameron said in a promotional video. “I think that the Avatar movies get along with the CINITY format perfectly,” he added.
Fire and Ash will also screen in IMAX across China. The movie will have a simultaneous release in the U.S. and mainland China on December 19.
The Revenue Split
Analysts are quick to point out that the percentage of box office returns U.S. studios receive from China is much smaller than in other markets. Under the Chinese revenue sharing system, foreign film studios only receive 25% of box office revenue. Even though Fire and Ash will likely be a major financial success in China, the majority of that money will not be going to Disney.
A screenshot from Avatar: The Way of Water – YouTube, Avatar
Cameron also has an unusual contract for the Avatar films, made before Disney acquired the property in its merger with 20th Century Fox. The director’s gross percentage deal means that he gets paid much earlier in the accounting process.
Still, whatever revenue remains after China’s share and Cameron’s deal should come as a relief after a brutal year. And the back-to-back successes of Zootopia 2 and Fire and Ash set a new course for how the studio develops and markets its upcoming projects.
Do you think Avatar: Fire and Ash will have a huge opening in China? Let us know in the comments!
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$100 million in mainland Taiwan = $25 million that actually gets paid to the studio. Never forget they take a 75% cut of all ticket sales for foreign films. It will be a pittance no matter what the movie earns there.
This movie will make two billion dollars while having zero pop culture impact.
Going this weekend.