Pixar’s long-troubled Elio is now tracking for a devastating domestic box office opening, with early projections from The Hollywood Handle estimating the film will pull in just $35 million to $45 million in its debut weekend.
For most animated films, that would be a worrying start. For Elio, it could be catastrophic.
Pixar’s ‘ELIO’ is early tracking to earn $35M-$45M on its domestic box office opening weekend.
• Budget was nearly $300M
• Potentially becoming the 2nd worst debut for a Pixar film pic.twitter.com/3XuV2hof1c
— The Hollywood Handle (@HollywoodHandle) May 30, 2025
The film is reported to have cost nearly $300 million to produce—before factoring in marketing. That makes Elio not only the most expensive original animated film in Pixar’s history, but also one of the costliest animated features of all time, period. In order to break even, it would likely need to gross over $700 million globally—a figure that now seems wildly out of reach.
Elio and Glordon in the trailer for the Pixar movie Elio – YouTube, Pixar
If current projections hold, Elio would notch the second-worst Pixar debut in history, beating only Elemental, which opened at $29.5 million domestically. Elemental ultimately defied expectations and legged out to over $495 million worldwide. Whether Elio can repeat that kind of slow-burn success is far from certain—especially given the lack of buzz and the film’s chaotic production history.
But even if Elio duplicated the success of Elemental, it still wouldn’t be enough for it to break even given its massive reported budget.
A Long Road to the Screen
As previously reported by That Park Place, Elio has faced enormous hurdles behind the scenes. Originally announced for March 2024, the film was delayed by over a year to June 2025. That delay was no minor schedule shift—it came after what sources described as major internal concerns at Pixar and a full-scale creative overhaul.
Elio in the trailer for the Pixar movie Elio – YouTube, Pixar
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Director Adrian Molina was removed from the project in 2024 under the usual “scheduling conflict” excuse, though he still retains co-directing credit. The film was handed off to Turning Red’s Domee Shi and Burrow’s Madeline Sharafian. What followed was a sweeping rewrite of the story, tone, and character dynamics.
Elio’s mom in the trailer for the Pixar movie Elio – YouTube, Pixar
Trailers released before and after the handoff tell the tale. The 2023 version leaned into a moody, emotional sci-fi narrative centered on Elio’s relationship with his overworked mother.
By contrast, the 2025 trailer showcases a lighter, more comedic tone, with new characters stepping into central roles. Zoe Saldaña’s character, for instance, was originally written as Elio’s mother—voiced by America Ferrera—before a complete recast and rewrite shifted her to the role of Elio’s aunt.
A Studio on Edge
The pressure on Pixar has been mounting for years. The studio’s lockdown-era releases (Soul, Luca, Turning Red) were shuffled directly to Disney+, causing a branding crisis. Additionally, Lightyear bombed at the box office and failed to connect with fans. While Elemental eventually found some level of success and Inside Out 2 proved to be a much-needed hit, Pixar’s streak of dominance has clearly faltered.
Elio in the trailer for the Pixar movie Elio – YouTube, Pixar
Elio was supposed to mark a return to original non-sequel storytelling—but its behind-the-scenes drama, ballooning budget, and now-soft box office projections suggest the opposite. If the film performs as poorly as predicted, it will raise fresh questions about Pixar’s leadership under Pete Docter and Disney’s current strategy for theatrical animation.
And with marketing likely pushing the total cost of Elio well beyond $400 million, this is a miss Disney simply cannot afford.
What do you think of these Elio box office projections? Sound off in the comments and let us know!
Hopefully it flops enough to offset the profits made by the Lilo and Stich demake.
Never heard of it
Insert Grumpy Cat “Good”.jpg.
I am guessing they did not have one brave soul to demand to make this movie not gay like inside out 2.
I still cannot believe that inside out 2 was one step away from becoming the biggest bomb uniting every last parent against it.
One f***g decision, one character. It was going to bomb, and by some miracle it did not. A miracle of one straight man sick
of this ideology.
Well, I am curious to see how this one is gonna fail.
Ugly. It will flop.