Marvel Studios’ The Fantastic Four: First Steps is showing signs of stumbling early after a frontloaded debut that exposed the weakness of the modern Marvel brand. According to recent reports from Deadline, the film is projected to experience a significant 60% drop in its second weekend at the domestic box office, potentially earning around $47 million and signaling weaker audience retention compared to its DC rival, Superman.
The cast of Fantastic Four: First Steps – YouTube, Marvel Entertainment
This comes on the heels of a first weekend that ultimately fell short of expectations and fell short in comparison to Superman’s debut, highlighting ongoing challenges for the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) as it builds toward Avengers: Doomsday.
A Frontloaded Opening Weekend: High Hopes Meet Reality
The Fantastic Four: First Steps, directed by Matt Shakman and starring Pedro Pascal, Vanessa Kirby, Joseph Quinn, and Ebon Moss-Bachrach as the iconic quartet, along with a robotic H.E.R.B.I.E., launched on July 25th with high anticipation. The film grossed $117.6 million domestically over its opening weekend, marking a record for the franchise, its stars, and the director. Globally, it debuted to $216 million, a respectable figure but one that failed to meet Superman’s $220 million bow earlier in the month.
Breaking down the domestic numbers reveals a tale of frontloading—a common issue for films that rely heavily on fan hype and previews but struggle to maintain momentum.
The Thing and Herbie the Robot in Fantastic Four: First Steps – YouTube, Marvel Entertainment
The film earned $57.2 million on Friday (including $24.4 million from Thursday previews), but saw a sharp 42% drop to $33.3 million on Saturday, followed by a further decline to $27 million on Sunday. This Saturday dip was notably steeper than Superman’s 33% Friday-to-Saturday decline, indicating that Fantastic Four appealed more to die-hard fans rushing to see it early rather than broader audiences with sustained interest.
In contrast, Superman, which opened to $125 million domestically on July 11th, demonstrated stronger word-of-mouth and family appeal. Deadline noted that fewer families attended Fantastic Four, with kids under 13 making up only 8% of the audience compared to the typical 21% for PG-13 superhero films.
The Human Torch and Silver Surfer in The Fantastic Four: First Steps – Youtube, IGN
Rural and suburban markets also underperformed by 13%, further hampering its domestic haul. Fantastic Four’s global and domestic shortfall underscores Marvel’s ongoing struggle to recapture the universal appeal that defined its earlier phases.
The Monday Dip: Early Signs of Trouble
The frontloading extended into the weekdays, with Fantastic Four experiencing a major box office drop heading into its first Monday.
After Sunday’s $27 million, the film earned just $10.4 million on Monday, representing a roughly 61% drop from the previous day. This is a steeper decline than what Superman faced in its first Monday, where it pulled in $12.9 million—a 58% drop from its Sunday estimate, contributing to a stronger overall hold.
Sue Storm and Reed Richards in The Fantastic Four: First Steps – YouTube, Marvel Entertainment
By Tuesday, Fantastic Four rebounded slightly with $14.2 million (a 36% increase from Monday), pushing its domestic cumulative to $142 million after five days. However, this recovery does little to mask the initial weekday weakness. Industry analysts point to factors like mixed reviews (praising the visual effects and script but criticizing pacing) and competition from holdovers like Superman, which continued to draw crowds with its positive buzz.
David Corenswet as Superman flying in James Gunn’s “Superman” – YouTube, DC
Superman’s first week ended with $177.7 million domestically, setting a higher bar for sustained performance.
Second Weekend Projections: A 60% Drop Looms
Looking ahead, the projections for Fantastic Four’s second weekend are concerning. Deadline reports an expected 60% decline domestically, translating to approximately $47 million—enough to hold the No. 1 spot but a far cry from the stability shown by Superman. Other estimates from Variety (an outlet known for being very kind to Disney) suggest a range of $45 million to $52 million, implying a 55-60% drop. This would still be worse than Superman’s second weekend hold of -53%, where it earned $58.5 million domestically and pushed its 10-day total to $236.2 million.
Vanessa Kirby as Sue Storm in The Fantastic Four: First Steps – YouTube, Marvel Entertainment
Superman’s stronger legs are evident in its daily holds during the second week, including a Thursday gross of $10.9 million (only -7% from Wednesday), reflecting positive audience reception and repeat viewings.
In comparison, Fantastic Four’s projected drop aligns more closely with underperformers in the MCU like Captain America: Brave New World and Thunderbolts. If these numbers hold, the film’s domestic total could fizzle out around $300-400 million, far below the blockbuster thresholds Marvel once routinely achieved.
Implications for Marvel: Another Flop on the Horizon?
This performance raises red flags for Marvel Studios as it navigates a post-Endgame era marked by inconsistent hits. The Fantastic Four: First Steps was positioned as a fresh start, introducing the iconic team into the MCU with a retro-futuristic vibe and teases for larger crossovers. Yet, its box office trajectory suggests it may join the ranks of recent MCU disappointments like The Marvels or Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, both of which suffered from frontloading and steep drops.
Galactus in Fantastic Four: First Steps – YouTube, Marvel Entertainment
Heading into Avengers: Doomsday—slated for late 2026 and expected to reunite major heroes under the Russo brothers’ direction—Marvel faces mounting pressure.
A massive flop here could erode confidence in the franchise’s ability to deliver event-level spectacles, especially with DC’s Superman franchise gaining momentum and already surpassing $500 million globally. Factors like audience fatigue, competition from streaming, and shifting tastes may be at play.
Silver Surfer from Fantastic Four First Steps (2025); Screenshot
Despite these challenges, Fantastic Four has broken some positive trends, ending a six-year MCU streak of sub-$100 million openings and delivering strong visual effects that have earned early praise. International markets could provide a boost, with the film already showing promise overseas. However, if the second weekend confirms the projected plunge, Marvel may need to reassess its strategy to ensure Avengers: Doomsday doesn’t face a similar fate.
Do you believe these Fantastic Four second weekend box office drop projections? Sound off in the comments and let us know!
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Marvel fatigue is real. I don’t see what chance Doomsday has if they can’t get something like Fantastic Four to sell.
As long as they want to keep flipping races and genders for social points I won’t be spending money at the theaters.
All the gay people watched it, they have no one else interested.