A new report has significantly downgraded the box office predictions for Joaquin Phoenix and Lady Gaga’s upcoming Joker: Folie à Deux film.
Joaquin Phoenix as Arthur Fleck in Joker: Folie à Deux (2024), Warner Bros. Pictures
Shawn Robbins at Box Office Theory originally shared at the end of August that he predicted the film would gross between $120 million and $150 million and more specifically shared he believes it would hit $138 million in its opening weekend.
Furthermore, he shared that the film would likely gross between $277 million and $404 million with a more precise prediction of $350 million in its entire domestic run at the box office.
Joaquin Phoenix as Arthur Fleck in Joker: Folie à Deux (2024), Warner Bros. Pictures
READ: Dislikes Surge on New Ironheart Trailer While Original Trailer Surpasses Half a Million Down Votes
Back then, Robbins was bullish on the movie citing Lady Gaga as Harly Quinn bolstering “enthusiasm for this follow-up among the built-in DC audience and her own fan base.”
He also noted that “social media traction is very healthy at this stage before release with signals pointing to stronger upfront demand for the sequel than the first film.”
However, he did hedge that the film being described as a musical, but not a traditional musical “could be important to consider from moviegoers’ perspectives given expectations will be high after the previous film.”
Lady Gaga as Harley Quinn in Joker: Folie à Deux (2024), Warner Bros. Pictures
Now, in a more recent update, he significantly downgraded his predictions by 44%. Robbins now predicts the film will only gross between $65 million and $85 million with a more precise prediction of $77 million.
As for the overall domestic box office, he also lowered his predictions there as well. He now predicts a range between $150 million and $222 million with a more precise prediction of $168 million. That is a 52% decline.
As for why he dropped his predictions so significantly, Robbins explained, “those models have been significantly impacted by the sequel’s mixed reviews from critics (62 percent fresh from 47 reviews on Rotten Tomatoes so far) and early pre-sales monitoring in our sample exhibitor markets that’s more in line with The Flash and John Wick: Chapter 4 than The Batman.”
Lady Gaga as Harley Quinn and Joaquin Phoenix as Joker in Joker: Folie à Deux (2024), Warner Bros. Pictures
READ: ‘The Penguin’ Showrunner Provides Bogus Reason For Why Robert Pattinson’s Batman Will Not Show Up
Critics scores are not only mixed on Rotten Tomatoes, but they are mediocre on Metacritic where the film has a 54 rating from 23 critics.
The film’s highest score is an 80 from a handful of outlets. Robbie Collin at The Telegraph praised the film, “As a repeat performance – even a cunningly subversive one – Folie à Deux can’t quite match its predecessor for dizzying impact. But it matches it for horrible tinderbox tension: it’s a film you feel might burst into flames at any given moment.”
William Bibbiani at TheWrap also recommended the film, “What’s most impressive about Joker: Folie à Deux is the way Phillips willingly undercuts his own billion-dollar blockbuster. He’s looking inward. Arthur is looking inward. Hopefully the audience will too, and question why they care so much about Arthur Fleck in the first place.”
Lady Gaga as Harley Quinn in Joker: Folie à Deux (2024), Warner Bros. Pictures
While Collin and Bibbiani are on the high side, there are a couple of negative reviews at Vulture and Vanity Fair.
Richard Lawson at Vanity Fair gave the film a 30. He wrote, “Very little happens beyond those walls, reducing the film to cramped psychodrama. It’s startlingly dull, a pointless procedural that seems to disdain its audience.”
Alison Willmore at Vulture similarly gave it a 30. She said, “Mostly, Arthur is acted upon, even when he thinks he’s seizing control — a punching bag for the world and, more importantly, for the director, who subjects the character to so many indignities that he actually stops being pitiable and starts resembling the punchline to a very long, shaggy joke. By the end of Joker: Folie à Deux, that joke feels like it’s on us.”
Lady Gaga as Harley Quinn and Joaquin Phoenix as Joker in Joker: Folie à Deux (2024), Warner Bros. Pictures
What do you make of these box office predictions crashing so significantly?
