Disney’s upcoming live-action Moana remake is generating plenty of debate among box office watchers, but not for the reason the studio would likely prefer.
With less than a month before release, tracking estimates for the film are all over the map. One independent tracker is forecasting an opening weekend as low as $50 million, while another sees the film debuting closer to $100 million. Yet despite the wide gap between those projections, none of the major forecasts currently circulating suggest the kind of breakout launch many would expect from a live-action adaptation of one of Disney’s biggest modern animated franchises.
In fact, all forecasts point to an opening under Disney’s divisive live action Little Mermaid adaptation, which was a major box office failure for the House of Mouse.
The disagreement itself has become part of the story.
Moana Tracking Estimates Are Moving In Different Directions
Earlier this week, Global Box Office claimed Disney’s live-action Moana is “tracking to bomb,” forecasting a domestic opening weekend between $50 million and $70 million.
MOANA live-action remake, starring Dwayne Johnson, is now tracking to bomb.
Costing around $200M, it has had pretty bad pre-sales for a while now and will open to $50M-$70M domestically. pic.twitter.com/UuJEPOVnA1
— Global Box Office (@GlobalBoxOffice) June 23, 2026
“MOANA live-action remake, starring Dwayne Johnson, is now tracking to bomb,” the account wrote on X. “Costing around $200M, it has had pretty bad pre-sales for a while now and will open to $50M-$70M domestically.”
That estimate stands in stark contrast to projections published by Box Office Theory on June 19. According to the latest forecast from the tracking service, Moana is currently projected to open between $75 million and $96 million domestically, with a pinpoint forecast of approximately $88 million.
Industry trades have also generally landed closer to Box Office Theory’s estimate, with reports suggesting Disney is currently eyeing an opening weekend in the mid-$80 million range.
Normally, competing forecasts differ by a few million dollars. In this case, however, the gap between the most pessimistic and most optimistic projections approaches $50 million. That kind of discrepancy suggests analysts are seeing very different signals when they look at audience demand for the film.
Even The Bullish Forecast Raises Questions
The more interesting question may not be which forecast is correct. It may be whether any of them are particularly impressive.
The original Moana became one of Disney’s most successful modern animated films. It generated nearly $700 million worldwide, became a merchandising powerhouse, and spent years as one of the most-streamed movies on Disney+. Its sequel then exploded at the box office, earning more than $1 billion worldwide and proving audience interest in the franchise remains enormous.
Moana in Moana (2016), Walt Disney Studios
Against that backdrop, even Box Office Theory’s more optimistic forecast raises questions.
The firm’s current pinpoint estimate sits at approximately $88 million for opening weekend. While that would be a respectable debut for many films, it would look surprisingly soft when compared to several recent franchise launches.
Disney’s live-action Lilo & Stitch opened to approximately $146 million domestically earlier this year.
Moana 2 launched to nearly $140 million during its traditional three-day weekend and shattered Thanksgiving box office records.
Lilo, Stitch, and Nani in the live action Lilo & Stitch – YouTube, IGN
Even Disney’s divisive The Little Mermaid opened to roughly $95 million domestically in 2023 before going on to flop at the box office.
In other words, the most optimistic forecasts currently circulating for Moana would place the film below Lilo & Stitch, below Moana 2, and below the disastrous Little Mermaid adaptation despite benefiting from one of Disney’s strongest modern brands.
That doesn’t automatically make the film a failure. Family films can demonstrate strong legs and generate significant revenue over time.
However, it does raise an obvious question: if Disney is adapting one of its most successful animated properties and bringing back Dwayne Johnson as Maui, shouldn’t expectations be considerably higher than where current tracking sits?
Questions Remain About The Film’s Budget
The uncertainty surrounding Moana‘s box office prospects becomes even more important when considering the film’s reported production cost.
Most reports place the budget around $200 million.
That figure has raised eyebrows among some box office observers given the sheer amount of visual effects work visible throughout the film’s marketing. Nearly every trailer shot features digitally enhanced environments, ocean effects, creatures, or fantasy elements that would require extensive post-production work.
The reported budget also becomes more interesting when compared to Disney’s other recent live-action remakes.
Young Moana in the Moana live action movie – YouTube, Disney
Disney’s previous generation of live-action remakes weren’t cheap either. However, once inflation is taken into account, the comparison becomes even more interesting.
Beauty and the Beast’s reported $160 million budget would be roughly $205 million to $210 million in 2026 dollars. The Jungle Book’s $175 million production budget would be approximately $230 million today, while Aladdin’s reported $183 million budget would translate to roughly $225 million to $230 million.
In other words, Disney is effectively asking audiences to believe that Moana cost about the same as Beauty and the Beast and less than the inflation-adjusted costs of both The Jungle Book and Aladdin.
An island in Moana – YouTube, Disney
That claim has raised eyebrows among some box office observers. Unlike Beauty and the Beast, which relied heavily on practical sets, costumes, and traditional production design with some CGI characters, Moana appears to be built around visual effects. Massive ocean simulations, digitally created environments, CGI creatures, fantasy elements, and effects-heavy action sequences dominate virtually every trailer released so far.
Even compared to The Jungle Book and Aladdin, both of which were effects-heavy productions in their own right, Moana appears to be operating on a similar scale while somehow carrying a lower inflation-adjusted budget.
Another Test For Dwayne Johnson
The film also represents another major theatrical test for Dwayne Johnson.
For years, Johnson was widely viewed as one of Hollywood’s most reliable box office stars. More recently, however, that reputation has come under increasing scrutiny.
Black Adam failed to launch the DC franchise Johnson had hoped to build around the character. Amazon’s Red One struggled to justify its enormous budget despite extensive marketing and star power. And the less said about the financial performance of his Oscar bait drama The Smashing Machine the better. While Johnson remains one of the most recognizable names in entertainment, recent results have led some analysts to question whether his name alone still guarantees a box office hit.
The Rock crying in the Smashing Machine – Youtube, A24
Moana should theoretically be different. Johnson is returning to one of his most beloved roles, reprising the character of Maui from the animated films.
But if the movie lands closer to Global Box Office’s $50 million to $70 million forecast than the more optimistic projections from Box Office Theory and industry trades, the conversation surrounding Johnson’s drawing power will likely intensify.
Moana in the live action movie – YouTube, Disney
Box office trackers cannot seem to agree on how Moana will perform. What they do appear to agree on is that Disney’s latest live-action remake is not currently tracking like the studio’s next billion-dollar phenomenon.
Whether that changes between now and release remains one of the most interesting questions facing the summer box office.
How do you think Moana will do at the box office? Sound off and let us know!
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