Disney and Lucasfilm’s The Mandalorian and Grogu is now staring down the very real possibility that the long-awaited return of Star Wars to theaters won’t even crack a $100 million opening over the extended Memorial Day holiday frame.
That’s despite the fact that the film technically had a massive head start.
According to Deadline, Thursday preview screenings for the Jon Favreau-directed movie (which began as early as 2 p.m. in many theaters) brought in around $12 million in previews. Current projections now place the film around an $80 million three-day opening and roughly $90 million over the traditional four-day Memorial Day frame (including Thursday previews).
Some outlets still reportedly believe the film could push toward $100 million. But based on current momentum, that increasingly looks like wishful thinking rather than a realistic target.
And honestly, there’s an argument to be made that Disney is already getting a generous counting window here.
Is This Really a “4-Day” Opening?
One of the more interesting parts of the reporting surrounding The Mandalorian and Grogu box office is that previews began extraordinarily early on Thursday afternoon.
That matters because Thursday preview grosses are normally tied to evening showings, often beginning around 6 p.m. or later. In this case, Disney effectively turned Thursday into a partial opening day.
The Mandalorian and Grogu – Star Wars, YouTube
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When you combine a 2 p.m. Thursday start with the full Friday-through-Monday Memorial Day corridor, the film is arguably benefiting from what is closer to a five-day launch strategy than a standard four-day holiday opening.
That makes the current projections look even softer.
If a new theatrical Star Wars movie cannot comfortably clear $100 million despite extended preview access, premium format screens, Memorial Day scheduling, and years of franchise buildup, that raises some serious questions about the overall strength of the brand with general audiences.
Comparisons to Solo Are Becoming Difficult to Ignore
The comparisons to Solo: A Star Wars Story are becoming unavoidable.
Deadline notes that the film’s projected trajectory is remarkably similar to Solo, which earned $14.1 million in Thursday previews before opening to $84.4 million over the three-day weekend and $103 million across the four-day Memorial Day holiday.
Grogu eating a cookie – Star Wars, YouTube
At the time, Solo was widely viewed as a disappointment for the Star Wars brand and went on to become the first Star Wars movie to lose money at the box office.
Now, eight years later, Disney appears to be celebrating numbers that are potentially even lower.
That’s a dramatic shift in expectations for a franchise that once dominated the global box office.
John Boyega as Finn in Star Wars Episode VII: The Force Awakens – Disney+
Disney’s first sequel trilogy entry, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, famously exploded with a then-record $247.9 million domestic opening weekend. Even Rogue One: A Star Wars Story launched to a massive $155 million domestic debut.
The fact that The Mandalorian and Grogu is now fighting just to reach the same territory as Solo is not exactly the triumphant theatrical comeback many fans expected.
Critics and Audience Reactions Aren’t Exactly Saving It
The movie’s reception has also been somewhat mixed.
While audience reactions currently sit higher than Solo on Rotten Tomatoes, critics have been considerably more divided. The film has hovered dangerously close to Rotten territory, reinforcing concerns that the movie may simply feel like expanded Disney+ “content” rather than an event-level theatrical experience.
Pedro Pascal unmasked in The Mandalorian – YouTube, Star Wars
That perception has followed the project since it was first announced.
Many fans questioned whether The Mandalorian — a series designed specifically for streaming — truly needed a theatrical adaptation at all. Others have pointed to ongoing concerns about franchise fatigue, inconsistent Lucasfilm storytelling, and growing audience disconnect from Disney-era Star Wars output.
Even the marketing has leaned heavily on familiar nostalgia beats and Grogu merchandise appeal rather than positioning the film as a must-see cinematic event.
Disney Needs More Than a “Fine” Opening
The bigger issue here is scale.
This isn’t some modestly budgeted mid-tier film. By all indications, The Mandalorian and Grogu is an expensive production backed by one of the largest entertainment companies on Earth that needs to clear around $600 million to earn a profit.
A merely “fine” opening isn’t enough for Star Wars anymore — especially after years away from theaters.
A screenshot from The Mandalorian and Grogu Super Bowl spot – Lucasfilm
Disney clearly wanted this movie to signal that the franchise still has major theatrical drawing power after the overwhelmingly negative reception to projects like The Acolyte and ongoing fan division surrounding the sequel trilogy era.
Instead, the conversation heading into Memorial Day weekend has largely become whether the film can even scrape past $100 million while benefiting from expanded Thursday previews and a holiday boost.
That’s not exactly the kind of narrative Lucasfilm was hoping for when it finally brought Grogu back to the big screen.
How do you think The Mandalorian and Grogu will perform in its opening weekend box office?
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