Disney’s live-action remake experiment may be facing another major test as box office projections for Moana continue to slide ahead of release.
Once viewed as one of Disney’s safest bets due to the enormous popularity of the animated franchise, the live-action Moana remake starring Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson is now reportedly tracking far below the kind of numbers many expected from one of the studio’s premier modern properties.
According to Global Box Office, expectations for the film’s domestic opening weekend have fallen again, with the outlet now projecting Moana to debut in the $45 million to $60 million range.
MOANA live-action remake, starring Dwayne Johnson, has pre-sales bombing harder than expected.
The projection for its domestic opening weekend is now down to $45M-$60M.
With a budget of ~$200M, it is on track to become one of Disney’s biggest bombs. pic.twitter.com/spWLuN3Ch8
— Global Box Office (@GlobalBoxOffice) July 6, 2026
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“MOANA live-action remake, starring Dwayne Johnson, has pre-sales bombing harder than expected,” Global Box Office reported on X. “The projection for its domestic opening weekend is now down to $45M-$60M. With a budget of ~$200M, it is on track to become one of Disney’s biggest bombs.”
The latest update represents another troubling sign for the film, as Global Box Office was one of the first trackers to dramatically lower expectations for the remake. Initially, other analysts remained more optimistic, with several forecasts suggesting the film could open significantly higher. However, as pre-sales continued and audience demand became clearer, additional trackers, including Box Office Theory, began moving their projections closer to Global Box Office’s lower $60 million range.
Now that the forecast has fallen yet again, it will be interesting to see whether the other outlets will once again adjust their reporting.
If those numbers hold, Moana could become one of the most shocking box office disappointments in Disney’s recent history.
A Stunningly Low Projection for One of Disney’s Biggest Modern Brands
The reason these projections are particularly concerning is because Moana is not an obscure Disney property.
The original 2016 animated film became one of the company’s most important modern franchises, maintaining enormous popularity on streaming years after its release. The character became a centerpiece of Disney’s brand strategy, merchandise, theme park integration, and future franchise plans.
The Rock as Maui in the live action trailer for Moana – YouTube, Disney
Disney’s confidence in the brand was so strong that the company moved aggressively to expand the world of Moana. Moana 2 was released as a theatrical sequel after originally being developed as a streaming series, and Disney also moved forward with this live-action remake despite the animated original being barely a decade old.
That makes a potential $45 million to $60 million opening weekend especially alarming.
A number in that range would not simply represent a soft debut. For a film carrying one of Disney’s biggest family brands, a massive marketing push, and an estimated production budget exceeding $200 million, it would represent audiences rejecting what should have been one of the company’s most reliable theatrical offerings.
Disney’s Live-Action Remake Strategy Faces Another Major Question
The larger question surrounding Moana is whether audiences are finally growing tired of Disney’s live-action remake strategy.
For years, the formula seemed nearly unstoppable.
Films like The Lion King, Beauty and the Beast, Aladdin, and The Jungle Book turned animated classics into billion-dollar or near-billion-dollar theatrical events. Disney successfully convinced multiple generations of fans to return to theaters to experience familiar stories with updated visuals and major Hollywood stars.
But the results have become much more inconsistent.
The like to dislike ratio for the first Moana trailer as of June 7, 2026 – YouTube, Disney
The Little Mermaid failed to reach the box office heights of Disney’s previous live-action remakes despite carrying one of the most recognizable brands in the company’s history. Snow White became a major financial disappointment after years of controversy and audience skepticism.
While Disney found success with the live-action Lilo & Stitch, the potential struggles of Moana raise a more complicated question: are audiences willing to embrace live-action remakes only when there is enough nostalgia and distance from the original?
The original Moana is still fresh in the minds of many viewers. Unlike The Lion King or Beauty and the Beast, which arrived decades after their animated versions, this remake is revisiting a film many families still regularly watch today.
Has Disney Moved Too Quickly With Moana?
The timing of the remake has been one of the biggest criticisms since the project was announced.
Disney revealed the live-action version less than seven years after the animated movie originally debuted. Instead of feeling like a generational return to a beloved classic, some fans questioned why the studio was remaking a movie that never really left the cultural conversation.
Moana in Moana (2016), Walt Disney Studios
The company’s strategy appears to have been built around the idea that the Moana brand was essentially bulletproof. The return of Dwayne Johnson as Maui seemed designed to recreate the success of the animated film while introducing the story to a new audience.
However, early box office indicators suggest that name recognition alone may not be enough.
If audiences already have a version of Moana they love, Disney now faces the challenge of convincing them why they need another version so soon.
A Potential Turning Point for Disney
A $45 million to $60 million opening weekend would not automatically determine Moana’s final theatrical fate, but it would place enormous pressure on the film’s legs and international performance.
With a production budget that could be over $200 million before marketing costs, the remake likely needs a significant worldwide total to justify Disney’s investment.
For a smaller franchise, these projections might simply be disappointing.
For Moana, they could represent something much bigger.
Hei Hei in the live action Moana – YouTube, Disney
This was supposed to be one of Disney’s safest bets: a proven brand, a recognizable star, beloved music, and a character who has remained popular for years.
If even Moana can’t guarantee a massive theatrical turnout, Disney may have to confront a difficult reality about its live-action remake strategy.
Audiences may not simply be asking for more versions of movies they already love. They may be asking Disney for something new.
How do you think the live-action Moana will do at the box office? Sound off and let us know!
