Disney’s live-action Moana is tracking for an opening weekend between $80 million and $105 million according to Box Office Theory. While some outlets will undoubtedly frame those numbers as a success, they look far less impressive when placed in context.
After all, this is not a new original film or a modestly budgeted family movie. This is Disney’s live-action adaptation of one of the company’s most successful modern animated franchises.
The original Moana became one of the most-streamed movies in the world, while Moana 2 recently sailed past the $1 billion mark at the global box office. Under those circumstances, an opening weekend in the same range as The Mandalorian and Grogu should raise serious questions about audience interest.
Moana Is Tracking In The Same Range As The Mandalorian and Grogu
According to Box Office Theory, Moana is currently tracking for a domestic debut between $80 million and $105 million, with a pinpoint forecast of $92 million.
Those numbers are noteworthy because they place the film in roughly the same range as Disney’s The Mandalorian and Grogu, which failed to reach $100 million during its opening frame and quickly became one of the studio’s biggest theatrical disappointments in recent memory.
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What makes the comparison even more concerning for Disney is the likely budget disparity between the two films. The Mandalorian and Grogu reportedly carried a production budget of approximately $166 million. While Disney has not revealed an official budget for Moana, the company’s remake history suggests the live-action adaptation could be substantially more expensive.
Disney’s recent live-action remakes have routinely carried production budgets approaching or well above $200 million. Aladdin reportedly cost $183 million, Mulan around $200 million, The Little Mermaid approximately $250 million, and The Lion King roughly $260 million.
With Moana featuring extensive visual effects work throughout nearly every frame, it is difficult to imagine Disney producing the film for substantially less than $200 million. If that proves to be the case, then matching the opening weekend performance of The Mandalorian and Grogu becomes an even more troubling sign.
An $80 million opening might be celebrated for a mid-budget film. It becomes much less impressive when attached to one of Disney’s most recognizable modern brands.
Disney’s Live-Action Remake Strategy May Be Running Out Of Steam
One of the biggest warning signs for Moana has been the response to its marketing campaign.
The film’s trailers have been heavily ratioed online. A recent trailer sits at approximately 60,000 likes and 185,000 dislikes, while the first trailer accumulated roughly 55,000 likes and 170,000 dislikes.
The like to dislike ratio for the first Moana trailer as of June 7, 2026 – YouTube, Disney
Those numbers don’t automatically translate into box office failure, but they do suggest significant resistance from audiences.
Disney’s live-action remake strategy has also become increasingly inconsistent. While some projects have found success, others have struggled to justify their massive budgets. The novelty that helped propel earlier remakes such as Beauty and the Beast and The Lion King has largely disappeared.
The like to dislike ratio for the second Moana trailer as of June 7, 2026 – YouTube, Disney
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Audiences have now seen Disney revisit many of its most beloved animated classics, raising the question of whether the studio has simply gone back to the well too many times.
When it comes to this film, pushback extends far beyond just trailer dislikes.
Why would any little girl want to play with this versus the cartoon Moana doll? pic.twitter.com/pAy3FpTGxl
— wdwpro (@wdwpro1) June 7, 2026
Social media has lit up in the build for Moana, mocking everything from The Rock’s wig to the odd design of its toy line.
Moana 2’s Success Doesn’t Guarantee Success For The Remake
Supporters of the film will point to the enormous success of Moana 2 as evidence that audiences still love the franchise.
That may be true.
However, enjoying an animated sequel and paying to see a live-action remake are two very different things.
Moana in Moana (2016), Walt Disney Studios
Disney is asking audiences to return to the same property almost immediately after Moana 2 dominated the box office. The situation becomes even more unusual when considering how recently the original film was released. Unlike many of Disney’s live-action remakes, which revisited animated classics that were several decades old, Moana first arrived in theaters in 2016. By the time the remake releases, only 10 years will have passed since audiences were introduced to the animated version.
Rather than allowing nostalgia to build over multiple generations, Disney is remaking a film that remains highly popular with modern audiences and continues to be one of the most-streamed movies in the world. That raises the possibility that many moviegoers simply don’t see a compelling reason to revisit the story in live-action form.
The situation becomes even more concerning when compared to The Mandalorian and Grogu. That film also benefited from a recognizable brand and a built-in fanbase. Neither proved sufficient to generate the kind of opening Disney was hoping for.
Why This Tracking Could Point To Trouble
The most important question isn’t whether Moana opens to $80 million, $90 million, or even $100 million.
The question is whether those numbers are enough.
Moana in the live action movie – YouTube, Disney
If Disney’s latest remake carries a budget comparable to many of the studio’s recent live-action productions, then a Mandalorian-sized opening may not be cause for celebration. Instead, it could be the first indication that one of Disney’s most valuable franchises is generating far less enthusiasm than the company expected.
Box Office Theory’s tracking doesn’t guarantee failure. Family films can sometimes post strong legs and outperform early projections.
Hei Hei in the live action Moana – YouTube, Disney
However, if Moana truly is a $200 million-plus production, opening in the same range as The Mandalorian and Grogu is not the kind of start Disney should have been hoping for from a franchise that produced a billion-dollar sequel less than two years ago.
How do you think the live-action Moana will do at the box office? Sound off in the comments and let us know!
