Disney may face a major embarrassment this weekend when Mufasa: The Lion King opens against the highly anticipated Sonic The Hedgehog 3. Industry experts predict Disney will fall short, with Sonic 3 expected to defeat Mufasa in the domestic weekend box office.
Screenshot from the Mufasa Trailer: Copyright The Walt Disney Company
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Tonight, Sonic and Mufasa will go head-to-head, igniting a Christmas box office race that has become the talk of Tinseltown. Disney enters this contest with every advantage.
For starters, Disney controls the premium theaters. It will release Mufasa in nearly every IMAX, Dolby, and 4DX theater. The film also gets a 3D release and more total venues than Sonic. Mufasa will show in 4,000 North American theaters versus Sonic’s 3,800. At theaters like the Disney Springs AMC in Orlando, Sonic only has one screen in the main auditorium and one in the adjacent dine-in theater, while Mufasa will appear on five screens.
New trailer for ‘Mufasa: The Lion King’ 🦁
In theaters December 20 pic.twitter.com/t5Fnr1cYAt
— Culture Crave 🍿 (@CultureCrave) August 10, 2024
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The Lion King name also carries more weight than Sonic. The original animated classic embodies Disney’s 1990s renaissance. The Lion King “Live Action” Remake once held the record as the highest-grossing animated film of all time, until Inside Out 2 unseated it earlier this year. This predecessor to Mufasa earned an astounding $1.6 billion.
The original 1994 Lion King animated film grossed $763 million, which adjusts to over $1.6 billion in 2024 dollars.
And yet, industry watchers still expect Sonic to win.
The first trailer for ‘SONIC 3’ has been released.
In theaters on December 20. pic.twitter.com/i7hsguJA3J
— DiscussingFilm (@DiscussingFilm) August 27, 2024
Variety—historically friendly to Disney—estimates that Sonic 3 could open with $55 to $60 million domestically, compared to Mufasa’s $50 million.
At first glance, this looks like a close race. But remember, Mufasa claims the lion’s share of premium theaters and a 3D release. For Sonic to start at such a disadvantage and still pull ahead by $5 to $10 million suggests the blue blur will captivate far more viewers this holiday season.
Dr. Robotnik (Jim Carrey) in Sonic The Hedgehog 2 from Paramount Pictures and Sega.
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It makes sense when you think about it.
Sonic The Hedgehog 3 has become one of the biggest “boy brands” on the planet. Disney once cornered the boys’ market with Marvel and Star Wars. However, Disney’s C-Suite brain trust decided to reimagine these two lucrative franchises into modern girls’ brands that also promote divisive social content.
As a result, Disney has pushed more middle-of-the-road and conservative families toward outside IPs like Sonic and Super Mario.
It’s important to note that experts predict Mufasa will win internationally this weekend for one key reason:
Sonic 3 doesn’t open overseas until Christmas Day.
That’s why these comparisons focus on the domestic box office only.
Mufasa (voiced by Braelyn Rankins) in Disney’s MUFASA: THE LION KING. Photo courtesy of Disney. © 2024 Disney Enterprises Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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Because of this, Disney will tout Mufasa as the number one movie in the world after this weekend—and they’ll be correct. The film will enjoy a nice head start and face stiff competition later, so it’ll be interesting to see how long it can maintain that momentum.
Reviews for the two films tell another important part of the story.
On Rotten Tomatoes, Mufasa has a 58% positive rating, while Sonic 3 achieved an 85% positive rating. Even if Mufasa opens big, we could witness the “Moana 2 effect.”
Moana in Moana (2016), Walt Disney Studios
Moana 2 launched on the back of its predecessor’s success—something Mufasa will likely attempt—but poor critical reception stalled its box office growth. A film that the media once claimed could reach $2 billion has only reached about $700 million after nearly a month.
If Mufasa truly delivers a subpar experience, stagnation could set in. If Sonic 3 earns strong word-of-mouth, it could change the game this holiday season.
Will you see Sonic 3 or Mufasa this weekend? Which one are you most excited about? Share your thoughts in the comment section below!
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