A $70 million-plus preview night gives the new Spider-Man film a credible path toward a staggering $350 million to $400 million domestic opening weekend… and the biggest box office all-time!
Spider-Man: Brand New Day was already expected to deliver one of the biggest theatrical debuts of the decade. Following its extraordinary preview-night performance, however, the question may no longer be whether the film can produce a historic opening.
The question is whether Spider-Man is about to challenge—or even surpass—the biggest domestic opening weekend in motion-picture history.
Tom Holland and Zendaya on the Graham Norton Show – YouTube, BBC
Early reports indicate that Brand New Day generated more than $70 million before the traditional Friday business was fully underway. At this rate, Spider-Man may actually achieve a $200M Thursday + Friday domestic opening. This is unheard of.
The existing record belongs to Avengers: Endgame, which earned $60 million from previews in April 2019 before opening to $357.1 million domestically. Spider-Man didn’t just barely edge out Endgame. It obliterated the biggest movie of all time Thursday-to-Thursday, preview-to-preview.
Because the film is phenomenal (I gave it a channel-high, 9.7/10, even surpassing Godzilla Minus One), there is no reason to believe that Brand New Day will be frontloaded or slow down. This could be the movie of a generation at this rate. This film could conquer box offices from now until far past Labor Day. And it’s a global phenomenon, not just a domestic flash!
This now gives the film a mathematically credible chance of opening between $350 million and $400 million in the United States and Canada. And as Marvin Montanaro pointed out on That Park Place earlier today, it’s all the more impressive because it’s doing it without a single IMAX screen.
Tramell TIllman as Seth Milchick in Severance – Apple TV;Tom Holland in a behind-the-scenes video from the making of Spider-Man: Brand New Day – Sony, Disney, Marvel Studios
The Weekend Math Suddenly Supports $350 Million
A $70 million preview total would require a five-times multiplier to reach a $350 million opening weekend. To reach $400 million, the film would need to multiply its previews by approximately 5.71. Those are enormous totals, but the required multipliers are not unprecedented among the films that produced the largest preview nights.
Avengers: Endgame converted $60 million in previews into a $357.1 million weekend—a multiplier of roughly 5.95.
Spider-Man: No Way Home turned $50 million in previews into $260.1 million, or approximately 5.2 times its Thursday number.
Avengers: Infinity War earned $39 million from previews before finishing the weekend with $257.7 million, a multiplier of approximately 6.6.
By comparison, a $350 million weekend for Brand New Day would require slightly less expansion from previews than No Way Home achieved. A $400 million weekend would require stronger Friday-through-Sunday business than No Way Home, but still a slightly lower preview multiplier than Endgame delivered.
That does not make $400 million the most likely outcome. It does mean the number can no longer be dismissed as mathematically absurd.
Steve Rogers Captain America yells “Avengers Assemble” in Avengers Endgame – Disney+
At a reported $70 million preview level, the scenarios would look something like this:
- A 4.0 multiplier would produce a $280 million weekend.
- A 4.5 multiplier would produce $315 million.
- A 5.0 multiplier would produce $350 million.
- A 5.5 multiplier would produce $385 million.
- A 5.71 multiplier would produce approximately $400 million.
- An Endgame-like 5.95 multiplier would produce more than $416 million.
The preview estimate therefore changes the entire range of plausible outcomes. Before Thursday, industry forecasts generally centered on approximately $195 million to $300 million. Boxoffice Pro issued one of the most bullish published forecasts at $280 million to $300 million, citing exceptionally strong presales, exhibitors adding screenings and the film claiming approximately 49 percent of all domestic weekend showtimes.
But those forecasts were produced before the full scale of Thursday demand became visible.
Robert Downey Jr. as Iron Man in Avengers: Endgame (2019), Marvel Studios
The Historical Stakes Could Not Be Greater
Only one film has ever opened above $300 million domestically.
That film is Avengers: Endgame.
The current all-time opening-weekend standings are led by:
- Avengers: Endgame — $357.1 million
- Spider-Man: No Way Home — $260.1 million
- Avengers: Infinity War — $257.7 million
- Star Wars: The Force Awakens — $248 million
- Star Wars: The Last Jedi — $220 million
The gap between first and second place is nearly $97 million. For years, that distance has illustrated just how singular the Endgame phenomenon was. No subsequent release had come remotely close to filling it.Even an opening at the lower end of the newly conceivable range would rewrite the record books.
Best of all: Spider-Man Brand New Day is a marvelous film in terms of its morals, ethics, and what it gives to the world as a guiding principle. The lesson that even good people need others to help them carry the load, and that the memories of our loved ones who embedded us with kindness is the cure for the world’s ailments… these are Mr. Roger style, anti-cynical axioms that have been missing from major blockbusters for a decade or more. What a movie! What a lesson! And to think that Tom Holland is said to have rewritten the film using his creative control after he was unimpressed with the first drafts!
Chris Hemsworth as Thor. Chris Evans as Captain America, Jeremy Renner as Hawkeye, Robert Downey Jr. as Iron Man, and Mark Ruffalo as Hulk in The Avengers (2012), Marvel Entertainment
Why Spider-Man Is Breaking Through Superhero Fatigue
The numbers also demonstrate that so-called superhero fatigue has always been more selective than absolute. It has always been BAD MOVIE FATIGUE, not anything else.
Audiences may have become less willing to attend every comic-book release automatically, but they remain prepared to turn out in extraordinary numbers for characters and stories perceived as genuine events.
Spider-Man occupies a category almost entirely his own. He appeals to children, teenagers, adults who grew up with multiple cinematic versions of the character and longtime Marvel fans. Unlike many recent superhero properties, Spider-Man is not dependent exclusively on viewers who have followed every streaming series or every installment of a sprawling cinematic universe.
The five-year gap since No Way Home has also allowed demand to rebuild. Rather than feeling like another quickly assembled sequel, Brand New Day arrives after an extended absence from live-action Spider-Man solo films.
James Marsden as Cyclops in the Avengers: Doomsday X-Men trailer – YouTube @marvel
Why $400 Million Remains the Upside Case
There is an important distinction between saying a $400 million opening is possible and saying it is probable.
The most defensible conclusion is that the reported preview number creates a legitimate path to $350 million, while $400 million represents the outer edge of the film’s potential.
Several obstacles remain.
Preview screenings began at noon Thursday, giving Brand New Day a longer preview window than older releases that began later in the evening. Modern preview totals therefore absorb more business that once would have been counted as Friday revenue. That can suppress the weekend multiplier.
For Brand New Day to reach $400 million, it would likely need more than a record Thursday. It would need extraordinary walk-up attendance on Friday, sustained family and general-audience traffic on Saturday, and a Sunday decline far gentler than normally expected for a fan-driven superhero release.
Zendaya – Jimmy Kimmel Live, YouTube
Spider-Man May Be About to Redefine the Modern Blockbuster
For several years, Avengers: Endgame appeared to have established an untouchable domestic opening record. The pandemic disrupted theatrical attendance, streaming altered consumer habits and many of Hollywood’s largest franchises struggled to restore the urgency that once drove audiences into theaters immediately.
Spider-Man: No Way Home came closest, but even its spectacular $260.1 million debut remained nearly $100 million short.
Now another Spider-Man movie may be the film that finally closes the gap.
Spider-Man has already demonstrated that he can rescue the theatrical marketplace during periods of uncertainty. After this preview night, he may be preparing to do something even more significant:
Rewrite the definition of the opening-weekend blockbuster.
