Early projections for the Super Mario Galaxy Movie box office are already signaling that Nintendo and Illumination may have another monster hit on their hands.
According to a new report from Deadline, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is currently tracking toward a $160 million-plus five-day domestic opening when it debuts in theaters on April 1. If those numbers hold, the animated sequel would easily become the biggest opening of 2026 so far.
And industry observers are already warning that this estimate may actually be conservative.
Early Mario Galaxy Box Office Projections
The early Mario Galaxy box office tracking covers the extended five-day Easter holiday window, which often gives family films an additional boost as schools are out and families head to theaters.
According to the report, the projected $160 million+ domestic debut would put the film firmly among the year’s largest launches.
Yoshi, Toad, and Mario and Luigi in the Super Mario Galaxy Movie Trailer – YouTube, Nintendo of America
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The movie is expected to perform especially well with younger male audiences, though the tracking data suggests strong interest across multiple demographics. First-choice polling — which measures how many moviegoers say a specific film is their top pick — is reportedly outperforming several recent major family releases.
That includes films like Lilo & Stitch and A Minecraft Movie, both of which opened to strong numbers at the box office.
Another key metric — unaided awareness, meaning audiences know about the film without being prompted — is also reportedly high, matching levels seen for the previous Mario film.
Can It Beat the First Mario Movie?
The big question hanging over the Mario Galaxy box office is how it will compare to its predecessor.
The original animated The Super Mario Bros. Movie exploded at the box office in 2023 with a $204.6 million five-day opening and a $146.3 million three-day weekend, making it one of the biggest Easter debuts in history.
Mario, Yoshi, and Frog Luigi in the Super Mario Galaxy Movie trailer – YouTube, Nintendo of America
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That launch ranked just behind Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice’s $166 million opening for the holiday frame.
The film eventually became a global phenomenon and one of the highest-grossing animated movies ever made.
Whether The Super Mario Galaxy Movie can match or surpass those numbers remains to be seen. But even if it falls short of the first film’s debut, a $160 million opening would still be a massive success and reinforce Nintendo’s growing dominance at the box office.
Nintendo Expands the Mario Universe
The new film shifts the franchise into a more cosmic direction.
The story follows Mario as he ventures beyond the Mushroom Kingdom and into space, exploring strange new worlds and facing galactic challenges inspired by the beloved Nintendo game Super Mario Galaxy.
That game, originally released on the Nintendo Wii, remains one of the most acclaimed entries in the franchise and introduced the series’ memorable cosmic setting.
Mario and Luigi in the desert kingdom from the Super Mario Galaxy Movie Trailer – YouTube, Nintendo of America
If the Mario Galaxy box office projections hold, the film could further cement Nintendo’s ability to translate its gaming icons into blockbuster theatrical successes — something many studios struggled to achieve for decades.
With the release still weeks away, the early numbers suggest audiences are more than ready to jump back into Mario’s world — this time on a much bigger stage.
How do you think the Mario Galaxy Movie will perform at the box office? Sound off in the comments and let us know!
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