Warner Bros. and DC Studios have another major box office problem on their hands with the disastrous opening of Supergirl.
After weeks of declining tracking, Supergirl has officially stumbled out of the gate, with Friday numbers pointing toward an opening weekend of around $40 million or less domestically. If those estimates hold, the film will debut well below Marvel Studios‘ The Marvels, which opened to $47 million in 2023 before becoming one of the biggest financial disappointments in superhero movie history.
For James Gunn, Peter Safran, and Warner Bros., this is a troubling sign that the new DC Universe is struggling to build momentum after Superman failed to ignite the box office the way many expected.
Supergirl’s Tracking Collapse Is Complete
Just a few weeks ago, industry tracking suggested Supergirl could open north of $50 million.
Those projections steadily deteriorated leading into release.
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Now, following Friday’s box office performance, the latest estimates place the film at roughly $40 million for its opening weekend after earning about $18 million on Friday, including $7.8 million in Thursday preview screenings.
That’s a dramatic fall from earlier expectations and places the film among the weakest openings for a modern DC superhero movie.
Perhaps most damaging is where it lands historically.
(L-R): Iman Vellani as Ms. Marvel/Kamala Khan, Brie Larson as Captain Marvel/Carol Danvers, and Teyonah Parris as Captain Monica Rambeau in Marvel Studios’ THE MARVELS. Photo by Laura Radford. © 2023 MARVEL.
Supergirl is now projected to open below The Marvels at the box office, a movie that has become the poster child for superhero fatigue after earning just $47 million domestically during its opening weekend and only $206 million worldwide for its entire run.
That’s not a comparison Warner Bros. wanted.
James Gunn’s DC Universe Isn’t Building Momentum
When James Gunn took control of DC Studios alongside Peter Safran, fans were promised a fresh start.
Instead, the early box office returns suggest audiences remain unconvinced.
James Gunn sits for an interview – YouTube, GQ
Superman was expected to relaunch the DC brand and create excitement for everything that followed. Instead, Supergirl arrives with declining interest, terrible reviews, and opening weekend projections that continue moving in the wrong direction.
Rather than showing momentum from one film to the next, the new DC Universe appears to be facing the same audience apathy that plagued the previous regime.
Launching below The Marvels only reinforces that concern.
Toy Story 5 Is Completely Dominating
Adding insult to injury, Toy Story 5 isn’t merely winning the weekend, it’s crushing the competition in its second frame.
Woody and Buzz Lightyear in the Toy Story 5 Teaser Trailer – YouTube, Pixar
Disney and Pixar’s sequel is expected to collect approximately $74 million during its second weekend, nearly doubling Supergirl’s opening while crossing $300 million domestically in just 10 days.
Normally, a brand-new superhero blockbuster would have little trouble overtaking a family film entering its second frame. Instead, Supergirl looks poised to spend its debut weekend watching Buzz Lightyear and Woody remain comfortably in first place.
Reviews Failed to Rescue the Film
Warner Bros. likely hoped strong reviews would create positive word of mouth heading into release.
That never happened.
The film currently sits at 57% on Rotten Tomatoes and 26% on Criticless, giving it one of the weaker critical receptions for a modern DC release. While audience scores have been somewhat stronger, they’ve done little to reverse the film’s declining box office outlook.
Instead of estimates climbing after preview audiences weighed in, projections have continued slipping. That suggests any positive audience reactions (there are a few…) simply aren’t translating into meaningful ticket sales.
A Difficult Road to Profitability
With a reported production budget of roughly $170 million before marketing costs, Supergirl needed a healthy domestic opening to begin building toward profitability.
Instead, it now faces an uphill climb.
Opening below The Marvels is a psychological blow almost as much as a financial one. That Marvel film has become shorthand for a franchise losing touch with audiences, and now DC finds itself facing similar comparisons.
The coming weeks will determine whether Supergirl can display unusually strong legs, but history suggests superhero films that begin with soft openings rarely make up the difference later.
Milly Alcock as Supergirl alongside the Rotten Tomatoes review score for the film – WB; Rotten Tomatoes
For Warner Bros., this is more than one disappointing weekend. It’s another warning sign that audiences remain hesitant to fully embrace the studio’s latest attempt at rebuilding the DC brand under James Gunn.
If these box office estimates hold, Supergirl won’t simply miss expectations. It’ll become one of the weakest openings of the modern superhero era—and another difficult chapter for a franchise still searching for its comeback.
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