What once looked like a surefire win for James Gunn and the rebooted DC Studios is now starting to look a bit shaky. According to new box office tracking, the opening weekend projections for Superman have dropped significantly—from an early outlook of $125 million–$145 million down to a more realistic range of $90 million–$125 million, depending on the source.
That means what was once the low end projection is now the high-end best case scenario.
Superman beaten down in the trailer for James Gunn’s Superman – YouTube, DC
It’s a considerable fall from grace for what was being touted as the foundation of Gunn’s new cinematic universe.
The Hype vs. The Hesitation
The film still boasts strong unaided awareness—meaning people are aware of it without being prompted in surveys. It even topped the metric with a score of 30, beating out 2022’s Top Gun: Maverick, which opened to $126.7 million. But while name recognition is high, first-choice intent—the crucial “must-see” factor—is trailing well behind recent superhero fare.
Superman withstands fire in the trailer for James Gunn’s Superman – YouTube, DC
For comparison:
- Thor: Love and Thunder opened to $144.1M
- The Batman hit $134M
- Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, also directed by Gunn, debuted at $118.4M
Superman is currently tracking below all three in first-choice metrics. Even more concerning, Marvel’s troubled Captain America: Brave New World had a 71% higher first-choice rating than Superman at the same point in tracking, and that film still opened to just $88.8 million.
What Changed?
It’s worth asking: why is Superman, the supposed crown jewel of DC’s new direction, suddenly struggling to maintain momentum after a record breaking trailer and a strong first day of ticket sales?
One possible explanation lies in James Gunn himself.
James Gunn attends the European Premiere of Marvel Studios’ “Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3” in Disneyland Paris on April 22, 2023 in Paris, France. (Photo by StillMoving.Net for Disney)
The filmmaker has made a habit of sharing behind-the-scenes updates and personal interpretations of the character on social media almost constantly. While transparency is often praised, it may have backfired in this case. Gunn previously mentioned his version of Superman wouldn’t be “overpowered,” raising eyebrows among longtime fans who expect the Man of Steel to be, well, super.
The marketing and promotion of the movie seems to center around Gunn himself and not Superman. Instead of leaning on the iconic character or propping up David Corenswet, the charismatic and charming star of the film, just about every bit of news that’s come out about this movie for months has centered around James Gunn.
Superman in the trailer for James Gunn’s Superman – YouTube, DC
Then there’s the patriotic elephant in the room.
In a move that sparked considerable backlash, Gunn’s production removed “the American Way” from Superman’s classic motto, replacing it with the more globalist-friendly “the Human Way.” That may play well in elite progressive circles and the Chinese box office, but for a character rooted in Midwestern values and American identity, it signaled yet another shift away from tradition.
Superman wounded in the snow in the trailer for James Gunn’s Superman – YouTube, DC
Could these creative choices be contributing to the cooling audience sentiment reflected in these lower Superman projections? While presales for early screenings have been robust, suggesting a solid core of die-hard fans, broader interest may hinge on word of mouth and reviews.
Superman’s Legacy and the Gunn Gamble
Superman is no stranger to the big screen. From the original Richard Donner films to Man of Steel, the character has generated over $2.5 billion globally across seven films. Zack Snyder’s Man of Steel opened at $116.6M in 2013 and ended with $670M worldwide. Batman v. Superman did even better, with a $166M opening and $874M global haul—despite polarized reviews. It should be noted, however, that the first on screen team up between Batman and Superman was expected to do a lot better.
Superman arrested in the trailer for James Gunn’s Superman – YouTube, DC
Those numbers set a high bar and they’re from many years ago, before inflation and the boom of premium screens. And while Gunn’s take may offer a fresh start, it’s beginning to look like the initial wave of excitement was based more on brand familiarity than fan trust.
The irony? Warner Bros. needs Superman to hit big—not just for its own sake, but as a proof of concept for the entire new DCU. A middling debut could throw a wrench into long-term plans.
Reviews Will Decide the Fate of the DCU
Studio insiders now acknowledge that reviews and audience response will make or break this film in the wake of these Superman box office projections. Superman is expected to deliver reverence and mythos. Any deviation from that promise could cost DC dearly.
Superman fighting an unknown enemy in the trailer for James Gunn’s Superman – YouTube, DC
We’re just weeks away from finding out if Superman can still soar—or if this reboot will stall out before it ever leaves the ground.
How do you feel about these upcoming Superman projections? Sound off in the comments and let us know!
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Racist Mr. Terrific actor and butchering the motto are two of the biggest reasons pushing me to skip seeing this movie in the theater.
The motto removal reminds me of the fears for Top Gun: Maverik when the trailer showed the OG leather jacket with the Taiwan flag and there was a big discussion about removal or retaining that version of the jacket to pander to the Chinese market.
They kept the OG jacket, even in the face of Chinese repudiation and it worked out pretty well because it was a damn good movie. As long as the movie doesn’t “rub your nose in US superiority” this fear of international backlash for including anything that could be considered jingoistic in modern Hollywood is a dumb trend that needs to go. Top Gun showed people will show up to watch a good movie, sometimes two or three times, even if it includes stuff that China might not approve.
And that’s just the business side which ignores that the Superman creed is a core part of Clark Kent’s character and values.
“Racist” – the BLM days are over, dude. 🙄
Me or the Mr. Terrific dude? He’s the one complaining about lack of representation for BIPOC specifically in Superhero moves. I am complaining about his complaining. I guess that is kinda racist.
Ah, 👍
As far as I can tell, this movie seems to be sloppy. Hollywood, being woke, can’t bring itself to make a true, patriotic alpha-male hero. Seems to me, Superman will be henpecked by that ghastly Lois girl-boss female.
The final trailer was disappointing, with Marvel-style “quipping” during battle (“I’m not messin’ around, I’m doin’ really important stuff down here”) that really deflated my optimism. I’ll still see it, but I’m expecting to be underwhelmed.