Warner Bros. and DC Studios may be headed for another disappointing weekend at the box office as Supergirl is now projected to suffer a steep second-weekend decline after its already underwhelming debut.
According to multiple industry reports, Supergirl is expected to earn approximately $15 million domestically during its sophomore frame. That would represent a drop of just over 60% from its $37.1 million opening weekend in North America, continuing what has quickly become a troubling theatrical run for the latest film in James Gunn and Peter Safran’s DC Universe reboot.
Supergirl’s Box Office Momentum Continues to Fade
While superhero films often experience sizable second-weekend declines, the context surrounding Supergirl makes this projection particularly concerning.
The film already opened well below the expectations many analysts had prior to release. Earlier tracking suggested an opening in the $40 million to $50 million range before estimates steadily declined in the weeks leading up to release.
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Instead, Supergirl debuted to just $37.1 million domestically, with international grosses also falling short of expectations.
Now, if the projected $15 million second weekend holds, the film will have little opportunity to build the kind of long theatrical run needed to recover from its soft opening.
Second-weekend drops are one of the clearest indicators of a film’s staying power. Although a 60% decline is not unheard of for comic book movies, it becomes far more damaging when it follows an already disappointing opening weekend rather than a blockbuster debut.
Warner Bros. Faces a Difficult Road Ahead
The disappointing projections arrive as industry analysts continue to lower expectations for the film’s overall theatrical run.
Recent reporting from Variety projects Supergirl could finish with only around $100 million domestically and approximately $200 million to $210 million worldwide if current trends continue. Those numbers would fall well short of what would typically be expected for a tentpole superhero film carrying a reported production budget of roughly $170 million, before marketing expenses are factored in.
Krypto the Super Dog in the Supergirl Trailer – YouTube, DC
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Previous industry estimates have suggested Warner Bros. could ultimately lose well over $120 million on the film if these projections hold through the remainder of its theatrical run, though many believe it will be much more.
The DC Universe Reboot Faces More Questions
The performance of Supergirl is likely to reignite discussion surrounding the long-term direction of DC Studios under James Gunn and Peter Safran.
Prior to release, the film faced a number of controversies ranging from online criticism of casting decisions to backlash surrounding comments made by star Milly Alcock, who drew criticism after remarks about fans and “Christian dads” during the promotional campaign.
Whether those controversies materially impacted ticket sales is impossible to quantify. However, they unfolded alongside declining box office tracking and an opening weekend that ultimately failed to meet even reduced expectations.
Jason Momoa as Lobo in a Supergirl ad – YouTube @dcofficial
Now, with a projected 60% second-weekend decline, Supergirl appears to be losing momentum rather than stabilizing.
The final weekend numbers won’t be known until after theaters report actual grosses. However, there is reason to believe the film’s second weekend could come in even lower than current projections. In the weeks leading up to release, industry tracking repeatedly projected a stronger opening for Supergirl than it ultimately delivered, with forecasts ranging from roughly $40 million to as high as $55 million before the film debuted to just $37.1 million domestically. If that pattern continues, even the current projection of around $15 million could prove optimistic.
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