Disney’s live-action Moana is shaping up to be exactly the kind of box office disappointment many analysts feared.
After weeks of steadily declining tracking, the latest industry estimates now have the film opening between $40 million and $45 million domestically, putting it almost neck-and-neck with Disney’s biggest theatrical disaster in recent memory: Snow White.
That’s a stunning fall for what was once expected to be one of Disney’s biggest releases of 2026.
The Opening Weekend Has Collapsed
According to the latest reporting from Deadline, Disney’s live-action Moana is now expected to earn just $40 million to $45 million during its opening weekend after a $17 million first Friday, including $4.5 million in Thursday previews.
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Just days ago, expectations were already sliding into the high-$40 million range after initial hopes of $60 million or more had evaporated. Now even those lowered expectations appear optimistic.
If those numbers hold, Moana will debut almost identically to Snow White, which opened to $42.2 million earlier this year after earning $16.2 million on its first day including previews.
That comparison should set off alarm bells inside Disney.
A $250 Million Gamble
The disappointing opening would be concerning under any circumstances.
It’s considerably worse when paired with the film’s enormous budget.
Variety has confirmed that Moana cost approximately $250 million to produce before marketing. Add a global marketing campaign that likely falls somewhere between $100 million and $150 million, and Disney’s total investment climbs into the neighborhood of $350 million to $400 million.
The like to dislike ratio for the first Moana trailer as of June 7, 2026 – YouTube, Disney
Using the traditional theatrical rule of thumb that a movie generally needs to earn roughly 2.5 times its production budget to reach profitability, Moana would likely need somewhere around $625 million to $700 million worldwide just to approach break-even on its theatrical run.
If marketing reached the higher end of industry estimates, the financial hurdle becomes even steeper.
That makes a weak domestic opening particularly dangerous.
Following the Same Path as Snow White
The similarities between Moana and Snow White are becoming difficult to ignore.
Both are expensive live-action remakes of beloved Disney animated classics. Both arrived amid growing audience fatigue with Disney’s remake strategy. Both received underwhelming critical reactions, with Moana currently sitting around 35% on Rotten Tomatoes, even lower than Snow White‘s 39%.
Rachel Zegler as Snow White in Snow White (2025), Walt Disney Studios
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And now both appear headed for nearly identical opening weekends.
Snow White never recovered after its poor debut, finishing its theatrical run as one of Disney’s biggest modern box office disappointments.
Disney will be hoping Moana avoids that fate, but the early signs aren’t encouraging.
Families May Simply Be Saying “Enough”
Perhaps the biggest issue facing Moana isn’t the movie itself.
It’s timing.
Disney released the massively successful animated Moana 2 less than two years ago. For many families, the story simply doesn’t feel old enough to justify a live-action remake.
Moana in Moana (2016), Walt Disney Studios
Unlike films such as The Lion King or Beauty and the Beast, which revisited classics decades after their original releases, Moana is attempting to remake a film that remains extremely popular and still feels contemporary.
Audiences may simply be asking why this version exists.
That question becomes even more important when ticket prices continue climbing and families become increasingly selective about what they see in theaters.
Competition Isn’t Helping
Disney also finds itself facing a crowded family marketplace.
Disney’s own Toy Story 5 continues to draw audiences several weeks into its run, while Universal’s Minions & Monsters is still attracting younger moviegoers despite softer-than-expected numbers of its own.
A clip from Minions & Monsters – Universal
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Instead of becoming the must-see family event of the summer, Moana is competing for the same audience at a time when many parents may decide they’ve already spent enough on movie tickets.
While Disney could benefit from relatively little direct family competition over the next month, it now needs exceptional legs simply to compensate for such a disappointing launch.
Disney’s Live-Action Strategy Faces Another Test
Disney’s live-action remake strategy has produced some enormous hits over the past decade.
But recent years have painted a much different picture.
After the financial disappointment of Snow White, Disney needed Moana to reassure investors that audiences still wanted these expensive reinterpretations of animated classics.
The Rock as Maui in the live action trailer for Moana – YouTube, Disney
Instead, the latest projections suggest the opposite.
If Moana ultimately opens in the $40 million range, it won’t simply represent another disappointing weekend.
It will raise even more questions about whether Disney’s live-action remake machine is finally running out of steam.
For a film carrying a reported $250 million production budget, this weekend could mark the beginning of another long and expensive voyage into box office trouble.
How do you feel about the box office prospects for Moana? Sound off and let us know!
