The first box office projections for Clayface have arrived, and Warner Bros. may be looking at another soft opening for James Gunn and Peter Safran’s DC Universe.
Boxoffice Pro is currently projecting the R-rated body-horror film to earn between $23 million and $33 million domestically when it arrives in theaters on October 23.
That would put Clayface below the disappointing opening of Supergirl, which debuted to just $37.1 million domestically in June.
However, while the numbers initially look worse, there is one enormous difference between the two DC films: Clayface doesn’t need to make nearly as much money to succeed.
Clayface Tracking Below Supergirl
Boxoffice Pro points to several potential obstacles, including the relatively obscure nature of the character, Tom Rhys Harries taking on his first major starring role, and the film’s body-horror approach.
There is also the state of the DC brand itself.
Superman wounded in the snow in the trailer for James Gunn’s Superman – YouTube, DC
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Superman opened to $125 million domestically last year, but the strong start didn’t translate into the level of success Warner Bros. apparently expected. While testifying before a U.S. Senate committee during an antitrust hearing in February, Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos said under oath that the film underperformed.
Supergirl then opened to only $37.1 million before finishing with $72.3 million domestically.
If Clayface lands at the midpoint of its current projection, it would open to approximately $28 million — roughly 25 percent below Supergirl.
That isn’t exactly the trajectory DC Studios would presumably like to see from its first three theatrical releases, particularly with Clayface representing its second DCU film this year.
The Warning Signs Were Already There
The projection also follows concerns raised about Clayface long before its release.
As That Park Place reported in January, Puck’s Matt Belloni included both Supergirl and Clayface among Warner Bros.’ potential red flags for 2026.
Supergirl subsequently justified some of those concerns with its disastrous theatrical run.
Supergirl using Heat Vision in the Supergirl trailer – YouTube, DC
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Meanwhile, questions have also emerged about exactly whose creative vision audiences will see with Clayface.
Mike Flanagan originally pitched the project and wrote the screenplay, but he recently distanced himself from the finished movie, explaining that his involvement essentially ended after submitting his script.
Hossein Amini subsequently rewrote the screenplay, while James Watkins directed the film.
That doesn’t necessarily mean the finished product will be bad. But having the writer most closely associated with the project’s development emphasize that the finished film isn’t really his certainly doesn’t inspire additional confidence.
But Clayface Has One Huge Advantage
Despite the lower opening projection, comparing Clayface directly with Supergirl can be misleading.
The biggest difference is cost.
Supergirl reportedly carried a $170 million production budget and ultimately grossed only around $126 million worldwide, leaving Warner Bros. facing a substantial loss.
Clayface, by comparison, reportedly cost only around $40 million to produce.
Scene from the Clayface trailer – Warner Bros., YouTube
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That changes the equation considerably.
A $28 million opening would be disappointing if Clayface were another $150 million superhero blockbuster. For a $40 million horror movie, however, it could provide the foundation for a profitable theatrical run, particularly if reviews and word of mouth are strong.
The Halloween-adjacent release date could also help.
DC Studios co-CEO Peter Safran previously defended the movie’s commercial prospects, pointing to horror as one of the most reliable genres with moviegoers. Clayface also arrives with relatively little direct competition for the horror audience.
Clayface Doesn’t Need Supergirl Numbers to Succeed
So, is Clayface tracking worse than Supergirl?
In terms of raw opening-weekend ticket sales, absolutely. Current projections suggest fewer people will show up for Clayface than did for a movie already regarded as a major DC disappointment.
Financially, however, the comparison tells a very different story.
Warner Bros. doesn’t need Clayface to perform like Superman, or even like Supergirl. With a reported $40 million production budget, it simply needs audiences to embrace a relatively inexpensive horror movie about one of Batman’s strangest villains.
But Turning a Profit May Not Be Enough
That said, Clayface isn’t just another horror movie. It’s part of Gunn and Safran’s expanding cinematic universe, which has already proven divisive across both film and television.
James Gunn sits for an interview – YouTube, GQ
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There is also a new variable hanging over DC Studios. With Warner Bros. set to fall under Paramount’s leadership before Clayface reaches theaters, merely avoiding the kind of financial disaster suffered by Supergirl may not be enough to impress David Ellison.
Clayface could ultimately turn a profit without coming anywhere close to blockbuster numbers. But profitability alone wouldn’t erase the larger concern if another DCU theatrical release attracts an even smaller opening-weekend audience than the one before it.
If these projections hold, the bigger question may not be whether Clayface makes money. It’s whether the DCU has built enough audience loyalty to convince moviegoers to show up for characters who aren’t already household names.
Are you surprised by the box office projections for Clayface? Sound off and let us know!
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