If you can believe it, we’re already two months into the 2026 calendar year with spring almost upon us. And after a very rough last two years for Hollywood’s domestic box office (actually, it’s been awful since the pandemic), many were hoping this year would finally signal a turnaround. Unfortunately, the opposite is true. It’s looking like 2026 could be one of the most disappointing box office years we’ve ever seen when accounting for opportunity cost and loss.
Given that theater chains like AMC and Regal have recently sounded the alarm in their earnings calls about the end of 2025, is there any sunshine in calendar Q1 of this year so far? Is there any reason for hope that Hollywood might find a rebound?
Here’s how the year is stacking up thus far in comparison to a 2025 that nearly failed to eclipse a horrific 2024:
January
2025
January 2025 was a relatively quiet start to the year at the domestic box office. Several holdovers from late 2024 carried the marketplace. Mufasa: The Lion King led early weekends, while titles such as Flight Risk and Den of Thieves 2: Pantera contributed steady but unspectacular returns. Overall revenue for the month reflected a modest beginning compared with stronger early year performances in past cycles.
Mufasa (voiced by Braelyn Rankins) in Disney’s MUFASA: THE LION KING. Photo courtesy of Disney. © 2024 Disney Enterprises Inc. All Rights Reserved.
2026
January 2026 was significantly stronger. Major December 2025 releases continued to generate large receipts into the new year. Avatar: Fire and Ash alone contributed more than $134 million domestically during January, while other holdovers including Zootopia 2 added substantial revenue. In total, January 2026 generated approximately $619.5 million at the domestic box office, marking a clear year over year increase from January 2025.
Nick Wilde and Jusy Hopps in police uniforms in Zootopia 2 – YouTube, Disney
January Comparison
January 2026 outperformed January 2025 by a notable margin, largely due to powerful holiday holdovers that maintained strong momentum into the new year. That’s why up until a few weeks ago, many inside the Hollywood analytical bubble were jumping for joy. That has now dried up…
February
2025
February 2025 was anchored by a major blockbuster. Captain America: Brave New World grossed roughly $200.5 million domestically during its run, powering the month’s revenue. Additional releases such as Dog Man and Heart Eyes helped round out the slate. Thanks to one dominant tentpole, February 2025 posted a robust total compared with January of that same year.
Anthony Mackie as Sam Wilson/Captain America in Marvel Studios’ CAPTAIN AMERICA: BRAVE NEW WORLD. Photo by Eli Adé. © 2024 MARVEL.
2026
February 2026 has featured a broader mix of mid-range performers rather than one standout blockbuster. Films such as Wuthering Heights, GOAT, Send Help, and Crime 101 have contributed solid numbers, though none individually matched the scale of February 2025’s leading release. As a result, while February 2026 remains semi-healthy, it has not relied on a single breakout hit to drive the majority of its revenue. And while we’re not finished with February just quite yet, there aren’t any signs of big box office numbers being drawn in the final days.
February Comparison
February 2025 benefited from a single high performing superhero release that elevated the monthly total. February 2026, by contrast, demonstrated steadier distribution across several moderately successful titles. Still, movies like GOAT and Wuthering Heights might get praise from some for finding money after the box office via streaming, they’ve been pretty lackluster for driving butts to seats in theaters.
Harrison Ford as the Red Hulk in Captain America: Brave New World – YouTube, Marvel Entertainment
Looking at the cumulative domestic totals for the first two months of each year provides a clearer picture of overall performance.
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January and February 2025 combined: Approximately $987.9 million domestically through February 24.
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January and February 2026 combined: Approximately $991.9 million domestically through February 24.
While the monthly breakdowns show that January 2026 significantly outpaced January 2025 and February 2025 may have had a slight edge over February 2026 individually, the combined year to date totals indicate that 2026 held a narrow lead of roughly $4 million by late February.
But here’s the problem…
When adjusted for inflation, the January and February 2026 totals thus far are significantly lower than the 2025 numbers. And, again, adjusted for inflation, it doesn’t seem like the remaining days will be able to make up for that. In fact, adjusted for inflation, the 2025 numbers are actually just over $1 billion dollars. That means 2026 is coming short on an apples-to-apples transactional level by about $26 million dollars (to be rather exact). Given that 2026 had Avatar money flowing in and 2025’s big claim to fame was a flopped Marvel movie, this is rather unexpected to the Hollywood intelligentsia.
A screenshot from the trailer to Avatar: Fire and Ash – YouTube, Avatar
Now for those who might say, “well there are four days left to tally, surely it will pass $26 million dollars,” let me remind you that movie ticket prices have far exceeded the rate of inflation. So if you were to double that $26 million for accuracy, it’s likely to be pretty darn close to correct.
Yet here we are. And as a result, we might just be looking at even more reason to take hold of AI, independent content creators, and anything else that could save the theatrical experience from extinction.
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