The box office warning signs for Supergirl continue to pile up.
Just weeks before release, the latest box office tracking has cut projections for the upcoming DC Studios film once again, and the new estimates put it in territory Warner Bros. almost certainly hoped to avoid.
According to the latest long-range forecast from Box Office Pro, Supergirl is now projected to open between $45 million and $55 million domestically when it arrives in theaters on June 26. That represents another drop from earlier estimates that had the film tracking closer to the mid-$50 million to mid-$60 million range.
The bigger concern is what those numbers mean in context.
Tracking Continues To Slide
Just a few weeks ago, Deadline reported Supergirl was tracking for a $55 million-plus opening weekend. Box Office Theory’s forecasts similarly placed the film in the low-to-mid $50 million range.
Now Box Office Pro has lowered its projected range to $45 million-$55 million.
That puts the film below the opening weekends of several DC movies that were widely viewed as disappointments, including Black Adam ($67 million), Aquaman ($67.8 million), and potentially even The Flash ($55 million).
For a film arriving just one year after Superman opened to $125 million domestically, those numbers are difficult to ignore.
‘Supergirl’ Is Now Being Compared To ‘The Marvels’
Perhaps the most alarming comparison is not another DC film.
It’s The Marvels.
When Marvel Studios released The Marvels in 2023, the film opened to approximately $47 million domestically, setting the record for the lowest opening weekend in MCU history. The movie would go on to become one of the biggest financial disappointments Marvel has ever released and finished its theatrical run as the lowest-grossing film in franchise history.
(L-R): Iman Vellani as Ms. Marvel/Kamala Khan, Brie Larson as Captain Marvel/Carol Danvers, and Teyonah Parris as Captain Monica Rambeau in Marvel Studios’ THE MARVELS. Photo courtesy of Marvel Studios. © 2023 MARVEL.
Now look at where Supergirl is tracking.
The low end of Box Office Pro’s forecast sits at $45 million. That means the film could potentially open below The Marvels. Even if it reaches the high end of projections, it would finish only about $8 million ahead of the movie that became synonymous with Marvel’s box office struggles.
That comparison matters because The Marvels didn’t simply lose money. It damaged Marvel’s reputation.
THE MARVELS. © 2023 MARVEL.
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The film became a symbol of the growing disconnect between studio expectations and audience enthusiasm. Its weak opening, steep drops, and disappointing final gross fueled months of discussion about superhero fatigue and whether audiences were beginning to reject films that once seemed guaranteed to succeed.
Warner Bros. and DC Studios certainly don’t want their newest franchise installment being mentioned in the same breath.
Toy Story 5 Could Win Supergirl’s Opening Weekend
As troubling as the opening projections are, another problem may be waiting.
Pixar’s Toy Story 5 opens one week before Supergirl and is tracking for a massive debut. Current forecasts suggest the Disney sequel could open north of $160 million.
That means its second weekend will coincide directly with Supergirl’s opening frame.
A screenshot from the Toy Story 5 Teaser Trailer – YouTube, Pixar
The math is brutal for Supergirl. If Toy Story 5 opens to $160 million and drops a typical 50% in its second weekend, Pixar’s sequel would still bring in roughly $80 million. Even with a steeper 60% decline, it would earn around $64 million.
If that happens, Warner Bros. could find itself facing headlines that Supergirl not only opened below expectations, but failed to take the number one spot during its first weekend in theaters. On top of that, the following weekend will see the release of Minions and Monsters, which is set to be another massive family movie this summer.
A Critical Test For The DCU
This doesn’t guarantee that Supergirl will flop in its opening weekend box office. Strong reviews and positive audience reactions can still push a movie above expectations. We’ve seen films outperform early forecasts before.
However, studios generally want to see projections rising as release approaches, not falling.
In Supergirl’s case, the trend continues to move in the opposite direction.
Supergirl using Heat Vision in the Supergirl trailer – YouTube, DC
The film is now tracking close to The Marvels, potentially below The Flash, and could face the embarrassment of losing its opening weekend to a Pixar sequel already in its second frame.
With less than two weeks until release, that’s not where DC Studios wanted its biggest 2026 film to be.
How do you think Supergirl will perform at the box office? Sound off and let us know!
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