Industry insiders are expressing growing uncertainty about the potential box office success of Supergirl.
On a recent episode of his The Town podcast, Puck founder Matthew Belloni and industry analyst Scott Mendelson assigned confidence scores from 1 to 13 to a slate of 13 anticipated summer movies. When the conversation turned to Supergirl, Belloni got straight to the point. “Supergirl, June 26th. I have this as a two. I am not confident,” Belloni said.
Supergirl fighting in the Supergirl Trailer – YouTube, DC
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For a major summer release—and the next chapter in an intended cinematic universe—it is an observation that may be raising red flags.
Early Footage Draws Concern
Notably, Belloni is basing his score on more than just the trailers and marketing materials available to the general public. The journalist also saw additional Supergirl footage at CinemaCon, the industry trade show for studios and exhibitors.
“I was open to it,” Belloni said, adding that he enjoyed last summer’s Superman. Noting its box office return, he said, “It got to $618 worldwide and opened to $125. But the footage they showed at CinemaCon, not great. Seems like lesser and kind of a, you know, IP milking. So, I am dropping this to a two.”
Jason Momoa as Lobo in a Supergirl ad – YouTube @dcofficial
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Framing a new sequel in a freshly rebooted cinematic universe as a hollow attempt to extract more value from an existing property is likely not the impression DC Studios wants to give heading into release.
Mendelson echoed Belloni’s concerns. “I’m not that much more confident in that it’s a five,” he said. “I was not thrilled about the footage at CinemaCon.” Though he did not go into specifics, Mendelson suggested the underlying issue lies in the way the story is being told, more than in how it looks. “The production values was there. It just felt very chaotic and busy in a way that just let them breathe,” he said.
“Lame,” Belloni concluded. “Nothing cool about it.”
Questions Over Marketing Strategy
The conversation then turned to how Supergirl might be marketed. “They’re going to sell this as, you know, female driven superhero meets John Wick, which is with the dog that everybody loves,” Mendelson said.
Krypto the Super Dog in the Supergirl Trailer – YouTube, DC
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Last year’s Ballerina was a female-driven John Wick spinoff, and even with extensive reshoots to add Keanu Reeves, the film significantly underperformed at the box office. If Supergirl follows a similar path, its theatrical returns may face the same challenges. Whether the film ultimately turns a profit—or simply breaks even—will depend on how much Warner Bros. has invested in it.
Budget and Break-Even Pressure
“I know this is cheaper than Superman. I was assured that it was not like a Daredevil to Elektra come down in terms of budget,” Mendelson said. In other words, the production cost for Supergirl is not believed to be drastically lower than Superman‘s. However, once marketing and distribution are factored in, studios often need a film to earn roughly 2.5 times its production budget to break even.
While official costs have not been made public, Supergirl‘s budget is estimated to be around $150 million to $200 million. If those figures are accurate, Supergirl would need to generate between $375 million and $500 million at the worldwide box office just to break even.
A screen capture from the Supergirl trailer – YouTube @dcofficial
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Expressing some optimism, Mendelson said, “If it does $500, everyone should be happy because again, this isn’t the 2010s where a studio lives or dies of the superhero franchises.”
Belloni appeared far less confident. “I think we’re looking more like $300, $350 for this one,” he said. “Which I think is a, you know, half of Superman. Not great.” By that math, if Supergirl underperforms at the box office, Warner Bros. could stand to lose $200 million.
More Than One Movie at Stake
Ultimately, this is not just about one movie. Supergirl is a key part of James Gunn’s expanding DCU, and a box office disappointment could raise fresh questions about the franchise’s broader future. With insiders already voicing doubts about the footage, story, and commercial upside, the film is shaping up to be one of Warner Bros.’ most closely watched box office gambles of 2026.
How do you think Supergirl will do at the box office? Sound off in the comments and let us know!
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