The first major box office tracking numbers for Supergirl are now public, and they suggest Warner Bros. could be heading toward the same problem Disney is currently facing with The Mandalorian and Grogu.
According to a new report from Deadline, DC Studios’ upcoming Supergirl is tracking for a domestic opening of around $55 million when it arrives in theaters on June 26. That figure becomes hard to celebrate when compared to other recent franchise films carrying similar costs and expectations.
Most notably, it would place Supergirl well behind Disney’s latest Star Wars theatrical release.
Supergirl Is Tracking Far Behind The Mandalorian and Grogu
Last month, The Mandalorian and Grogu debuted to approximately $81.7 million domestically and roughly $167 million worldwide during its opening frame.
Even before the film’s steep second-weekend decline, many observers were already questioning whether the opening was strong enough for a franchise of Star Wars’ size and stature. Disney had spent months promoting the movie as the return of Star Wars to theaters, yet it opened significantly below even the franchise’s lowest theatrical launches.
Those concerns only intensified as the film suffered sharp week-to-week declines and struggled to maintain momentum at the box office.
Now Supergirl is tracking more than $25 million below that opening weekend.
A piece of the Mandalorian and Grogu movie poster – Disney
That comparison should raise concerns for Warner Bros. because Disney’s film is already facing questions about whether it can generate enough revenue to justify its reported costs. If The Mandalorian and Grogu is struggling after opening above $80 million domestically, what does that say about a movie currently projected to launch in the mid-$50 million range?
The gap becomes even more notable given that both projects reportedly operate in a similar budget territory and both were positioned as major franchise entries designed to help shape the future of their respective cinematic universes.
The Break-Even Numbers Raise Serious Questions
Part of the debate surrounding the Supergirl box office centers on a claim made in Deadline’s report suggesting the movie could break even at approximately $315 million worldwide.
That figure has generated skepticism among box office observers.
A screen capture from the Supergirl trailer – YouTube @dcofficial
Production costs for Supergirl have been reported in the neighborhood of $170 million to $175 million. Financial commentator Valliant Renegade has argued that worldwide marketing and distribution expenses for a film of this scale could push another $125 million to $140 million onto the ledger.
If those estimates are accurate, Warner Bros. may ultimately have between $300 million and $315 million invested in the project before accounting for theater splits.
Studios also do not keep every dollar generated at the box office. Theater chains retain a significant percentage of ticket sales, while international revenue shares often provide an even smaller return to the studio.
The poster for Supergirl – DC
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That reality has led many analysts to conclude that a movie carrying an all-in cost approaching $300 million would likely require worldwide grosses closer to $500 million or even $600 million before theatrical profitability becomes realistic.
Whether that estimate proves accurate remains to be seen, but it highlights why a projected $55 million opening for Supergirl at the box office has generated so much discussion.
Warner Bros. Could Be Facing The Same Problem as Disney
At this stage, tracking data isn’t a final verdict.
Movies can exceed expectations, especially if reviews are strong and audience reactions generate positive word of mouth. Warner Bros. still has several weeks to build awareness and excitement ahead of release.
However, early tracking is designed to measure consumer interest, and right now those numbers suggest Supergirl is attracting substantially less attention than The Mandalorian and Grogu did heading into its release.
Supergirl using Heat Vision in the Supergirl trailer – YouTube, DC
For Warner Bros., that creates an uncomfortable situation.
Disney’s Star Wars film already demonstrated that even an $81.7 million domestic opening may not be enough to guarantee success in today’s marketplace. If Supergirl ultimately opens more than $25 million lower than that, DC Studios could find itself confronting many of the same financial questions Disney is currently trying to answer.
Krypto the Super Dog in the Supergirl Trailer – YouTube, DC
The coming weeks will determine whether audience interest improves. For now, however, the first major box office tracking report suggests Supergirl may be starting its theatrical run from a much weaker position than Warner Bros. would have hoped.
How do you think Supergirl will do at the box office? Sound off in the comments and let us know!
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