Disney’s upcoming live-action Moana remake is facing new questions after updated box office projections showed a significant drop in expectations for one of the company’s most valuable modern franchises.
While Moana appeared to be one of Disney’s safest bets on paper, the latest tracking suggests the studio may not have another guaranteed blockbuster on its hands.
The original animated film became a phenomenon after its 2016 release, finding a massive audience both theatrically and through years of popularity on Disney+. Meanwhile, Moana 2 proved there was still plenty of interest in the characters when it became one of Disney’s biggest recent box office successes, passing $1 billion at the global box office.
However, the live-action remake starring Dwayne Johnson as Maui appears to be facing a very different theatrical landscape, with analysts lowering expectations ahead of release.
Moana Box Office Forecasts Fall As Analysts Lower Expectations
Just a few weeks ago, That Park Place reported that early box office tracking for Moana was divided.
Global Box Office projected the film would open between $50 million and $70 million domestically, a surprisingly modest start for a remake of one of Disney’s most recognizable modern animated films.
That forecast has remained mostly unchanged, with Global Box Office continuing to project an opening in that range.
MOANA live-action remake, starring Dwayne Johnson, is keeping a horrible pace in pre-sales and may struggle to hit even $60M domestically.
In overseas markets, it’s doing even worse. pic.twitter.com/Il3jOPv8eS
— Global Box Office (@GlobalBoxOffice) July 2, 2026
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However, other analysts who initially expected a stronger debut are now lowering expectations.
Box Office Theory previously projected that Moana would earn between $75 million and $96 million during its domestic opening weekend. That forecast suggested the combination of Disney’s brand power, the popularity of the original film, and Dwayne Johnson’s return as Maui could push the remake toward a much larger (but still not stellar) debut.
Those expectations have now changed.
Box Office Theory’s latest forecast projects Moana will open between $57 million and $72 million domestically, with a pinpoint prediction of $62 million.
Moana in the live action movie – YouTube, Disney
The outlet also projects a final domestic total between $171 million and $210 million, with a pinpoint forecast of $195 million.
That marks a 23% decline from its previous tracking.
While many studios would celebrate a $60 million opening weekend, expectations are different when dealing with an expensive Disney remake of a billion-dollar-caliber franchise.
Disney’s Live-Action Remakes Have Become Expensive Productions
The biggest challenge facing Moana may not be its opening weekend. It may be the amount of money the movie needs to make.
Disney has not officially revealed the production budget for the live-action remake, but similar films suggest it likely required a massive investment.
Disney’s 2017 live-action Beauty and the Beast reportedly carried a production budget of roughly $160 million. Adjusted for inflation, that would be approximately $205 million to $210 million in 2026 dollars.
The Beast in Disney’s Live Action Beauty and the Beast – YouTube, DisneyMusicVEVO
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The 2016 remake of The Jungle Book reportedly cost around $175 million, which would translate to roughly $230 million today.
Meanwhile, 2019’s Aladdin reportedly carried a $183 million budget, which would put a similar production around $225 million to $230 million after inflation.
However, the most comparable Disney remake may be The Little Mermaid.
Like Moana, the 2023 remake required extensive ocean environments, CGI characters, and complicated water-based visual effects. That film reportedly carried a massive $240 million production budget before marketing costs.
A screenshot from The Little Mermaid – Disney+
Adjusted for inflation, a similar production today would approach roughly $260 million to $270 million.
Considering Moana must recreate Maui’s transformations, the living ocean, magical environments, and several animated characters in live action, it would not be surprising if Disney’s newest remake landed in a similar range.
Moana Could Face A Difficult Path To Profitability
A massive production budget is only part of the equation.
Major Disney releases also require worldwide marketing campaigns that can add another $100 million or more to the total cost.
If Moana carries a production budget comparable to Disney’s other CGI-heavy remakes, the film could potentially need somewhere in the neighborhood of $700 million worldwide before reaching theatrical profitability.
That would make a $60 million domestic opening a challenging start.
Young Moana in the Moana live action movie – YouTube, Disney
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For comparison, Disney’s biggest live-action remake successes exploded immediately.
Beauty and the Beast opened to $174.7 million domestically before earning more than $1.2 billion worldwide. The Lion King opened to $191.7 million domestically and eventually surpassed $1.6 billion globally.
Those movies became theatrical events, but current projections suggest Moana could have a much slower climb.
Disney’s Recent Box Office Results Show Audiences Are Becoming More Selective
The concern surrounding Moana doesn’t mean Disney is incapable of delivering major theatrical wins.
The company has seen positive signs from several major brands. Toy Story 5 is already generating strong box office returns, suggesting Pixar’s most recognizable franchise remains one of the studio’s most valuable properties.
Disney also found success with its live-action Lilo & Stitch remake, proving that audiences are still willing to embrace these reimaginings when the right film connects.
However, the studio has also suffered several major disappointments.
Pedro Pascal unmasked in The Mandalorian – YouTube, Star Wars
Most recently, The Mandalorian and Grogu failed to deliver the kind of box office performance traditionally expected from Star Wars. Despite marking the franchise’s first theatrical return since The Rise of Skywalker, the film struggled and ultimately flopped. It’s currently sitting at just $328 million worldwide.
Disney’s live-action remake strategy has also become inconsistent.
The Little Mermaid earned roughly $570 million worldwide, but its enormous budget created debate over whether the movie delivered the financial return Disney needed. Meanwhile, Snow White became one of the company’s biggest live-action remake disappointments after failing to generate the audience excitement normally associated with Disney’s classic brands. The Rachel Zegler led film was a complete financial disaster for Disney, earning just $205.7 million worldwide during its run.
Rachel Zegler as Snow White in Snow White (2025), Walt Disney Studios
That puts Moana in an interesting position.
Disney still has some of the biggest entertainment franchises in the world. But recent years have shown that a recognizable name alone no longer guarantees a billion-dollar result.
Has Disney Pushed Moana Too Far Too Fast?
The biggest question may not be whether audiences like Moana. They clearly do.
The question is whether Disney is asking too much from the franchise in too short of a period.
After the original film’s release in 2016, audiences received Moana 2 in 2024. Now, only two years later, Disney is returning with a live-action remake of the original story.
Hei Hei in the live action Moana – YouTube, Disney
Unlike previous Disney remakes, which revisited films from decades earlier, Moana is still a relatively young property. Many of the children who grew up watching the original are barely adults today.
The remake still has advantages. Dwayne Johnson’s Maui remains extremely recognizable, the music is beloved, and family audiences could still show up in large numbers.
But the latest tracking suggests Disney’s newest live-action remake may not be the guaranteed box office giant many expected. Instead, Moana could become the next major test of whether Disney’s remake strategy still has the same power it once did.
How do you feel about these live-action Moana box office projections? Sound off and let us know!
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